Ukrainian officials warn of diminishing US intelligence support as Russian missile strikes intensify

Kyiv, Ukraine – Russian ballistic missile strikes have been described as supernova‑like explosions, unleashing thunderous detonations, shockwaves, fires and loss of life, while Ukrainian air‑defence systems fire in rapid succession.

This week’s nightly assaults left at least 15 dead and dozens injured, echoing previous waves of attacks, but with a critical difference that has heightened anxiety in Kyiv.

Air‑raid sirens blared only seconds before or after waves of missiles hit residential blocks, power stations and logistics hubs.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced on Monday that Ukraine’s partners have stopped sharing intelligence gathered from NATO’s early‑warning satellite network, a development that has strained relations with Washington.

Zelenskyy did not explicitly name the United States, while President Donald Trump has publicly denied that any intelligence flow has been halted.

NATO’s military satellite constellation is designed to detect Russian ballistic launches the instant their thermal plumes appear, providing crucial lead time for defence.

Those alerts have historically afforded Ukrainians up to ten minutes to activate sirens and dispatch emergency text messages, prompting rapid evacuations to bomb shelters. “That’s what helps prevent the killings,” Zelenskyy emphasized.

‘Trump is pressuring our leadership’

Even as Trump denies any pullback, Ukrainian analysts contend that the US president is using diplomatic pressure to push Kyiv toward an “energy ceasefire” with Moscow, a move they say is aimed at lowering global oil prices ahead of the US midterm elections.

“Trump pressures our president, pressures Ukraine” as he strives to “get advantage by any means necessary in the election campaign,” said Lieutenant‑General Ihor Romanenko, a former deputy chief of Ukraine’s armed forces, in an interview with Al Jazeera.

The absence of satellite‑derived intelligence “significantly reduces the effectiveness of our air‑defence systems; we simply lack the time to react,” he added.

Without that data, Ukrainian drones and missiles also “lose precision when striking deep‑target sites inside Russia,” he noted.

Kyiv’s strategic focus on oil refineries

The apparent cessation of data sharing has been especially unsettling, coming after Kyiv paused strikes on Russian refineries for three days.

Only on Wednesday did Ukrainian drones resume attacks, hitting facilities in the Saratov and Ryazan regions, according to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksander Novak.

Nevertheless, several observers argue that targeting oil refineries is not delivering the intended strategic impact.

“Kyiv’s strategic priority remains the destruction of oil refineries,” said Nikolay Mitrokhin of Bremen University, a prolific analyst of the conflict, speaking to Al Jazeera.

Russia, however, has mitigated the impact by rerouting gas from Siberian refineries and exporting through Belarus and Kazakhstan, preventing an economic collapse or mass unrest.

Despite continued air raids and the introduction of jet‑powered drones that resemble cruise missiles—harder to intercept with existing Ukrainian air‑defence—Moscow’s economy has not cratered, he noted.

“What rationale underpins Kyiv’s and its allies’ belief that refinery strikes will achieve Russia’s strategic defeat before Ukraine is defeated? I simply do not see it,” he observed.

Attacks on Russian data centers, bridges and drone‑manufacturing plants, however, have proven far more disruptive, he argued.

Recent strikes on the Yandex and Sberbank data hubs have caused service outages across Russia and former Soviet states that rely on their online platforms for payments, food delivery and taxi services.

Trump “didn’t ask him to stop the war, to cede cities or halt strikes against Russian rear positions altogether,” Mitrokhin added.

Kyiv has repeatedly signalled its readiness to enter peace talks provided a ceasefire precedes negotiations, yet Moscow insists on continuing ground offensives and aerial bombardments until final settlement terms are agreed, a process that could extend for months or years.

‘We’re prepared for any scenario’

On Wednesday, Ukraine’s drone commander accused SpaceX of abruptly throttling Starlink terminals integrated into the military‑grade Starshield network.

Serhiy Beskrestnov claimed that SpaceX curtailed service for terminals on drones traveling faster than 160 km/h (100 mph) without prior notice.

The restriction has crippled critical interceptor drones and follows a request from President Trump, according to presidential adviser Serhii Sternenko.

Musk countered that the White House controls the Starshield system and that any speed limits are decided by Trump’s administration.

Analysts warn that further throttling could lead to a total shutdown of Starlink for Ukrainian forces, jeopardizing secure military communications.

“We were ready for everything,” said Andriy Pronin. “We already anticipated such moves, which is why we are prepared for any turn of events.”

In September 2022, Musk covertly ordered engineers to deactivate Starlink coverage in the occupied Kherson region, hampering Kyiv’s attempt to reclaim the area, according to a Reuters report.

During 2023, Musk threatened to cut off Ukrainian military access to Starlink unless the U.S. Defense Department assumed the costs.

Eventually, the Pentagon, Poland and other European allies took over those expenses, restoring service.

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