UN Report Projects Higher Global Warming Trajectories Even Under Most Optimistic Scenario

By Simon Jessop

LONDON, Oct 21 (Reuters) — Global warming is now projected to exceed previous estimates, with even the most optimistic scenario seeing average temperatures rise to 1.7–1.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by mid-century, according to a UN report released on Wednesday.

Despite a rapid expansion of renewable energy and climate policies that are reducing emissions in many countries, the report emphasized that “urgent and stringent” cuts remain essential to achieve that best-case outcome.

The UN Environment Programme’s report stated that greenhouse gas emissions must fall 18% from 2025 levels by 2030, 45% by 2035, and 69% by 2040. However, current national plans would only reduce emissions by 5–8% by 2030 and 11–15% by 2035.

The report projected global warming of 2.8 Celsius by 2100 under current policies, or 2.6°C if countries fully implement existing climate pledges. Both estimates are higher than last year’s projections, reflecting the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and revised assessments of historical emissions.

As countries prepare for the next round of climate talks in Turkey, COP31, UN Secretary-General António Guterres stressed that it was crucial not to give up on efforts to rein in the emissions fuelling floods, fires, and other natural disasters.

“Overshoot is not surrender. We can still keep it as small and as short as possible – and bring temperatures back below 1.5 degrees by the end of the century,” he said.

Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries agreed to try to keep the average temperature increase at well below 2 degrees and ideally 1.5°C.

Since limiting warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot is no longer considered possible, the UN Environment Programme said its new “lowest possible” overshoot scenario gives roughly a 50% chance that temperatures could return to 1.5°C or below by 2100.

The report noted that climate plans submitted since last year have made virtually no difference to future warming projections, and that returning to 1.5°C will depend on large-scale carbon removal, the feasibility of which remains uncertain.

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