Upcoming Week Outlook: USD Resilience Tested by Fed Minutes and Jobless Claims

The upcoming week presents a fresh test for major currency pairs as investors return from the US Independence Day holiday and continue to assess weaker US labor market data. The release of the latest FOMC minutes and initial jobless claims will probe the resilience of the US dollar (USD).

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading slightly lower near 100.90 and is expected to close the week down about 0.50%. The Greenback will now concentrate on a relatively light but significant US economic calendar. Monday will feature the final S&P Global Services PMI and ISM Services PMI, while Tuesday’s trade balance and Wednesday’s FOMC minutes will be key. The minutes from the Fed’s June meeting — the first under Chair Kevin Warsh — may reveal whether policymakers remain committed to a restrictive stance.

The table below displays today’s percentage changes of the US Dollar (USD) versus major currencies. The USD recorded its strongest performance against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.04%-0.06%0.16%0.15%-0.17%-0.14%0.04%EUR0.04%-0.03%0.20%0.18%-0.16%-0.13%0.07%GBP0.06%0.03%0.22%0.20%-0.16%-0.09%0.10%JPY-0.16%-0.20%-0.22%-0.01%-0.37%-0.33%-0.12%CAD-0.15%-0.18%-0.20%0.00%-0.37%-0.30%-0.10%AUD0.17%0.16%0.16%0.37%0.37%0.07%0.25%NZD0.14%0.13%0.09%0.33%0.30%-0.07%0.19%CHF-0.04%-0.07%-0.10%0.12%0.10%-0.25%-0.19%

The heat map illustrates percentage changes among major currencies, with the base currency selected from the left column and the quote currency from the top row. For instance, selecting the US Dollar in the left column and following its row to the Japanese Yen column shows the percentage change representing USD (base) per JPY (quote).

EUR/USD is trading slightly higher around 1.1440 and is expected to remain influenced by the contrast between softer US labor data and the ECB’s cautious stance. German and French trade and industrial data will also be monitored for signs of sustained activity recovery.

GBP/USD surged more than 1% this week, reaching near 1.3350, and remains highly sensitive to the overall direction of the US Dollar. Should the FOMC Minutes indicate labor market concerns, the pair may find support.

USD/JPY is trading around 161.40 after reaching a 40‑year high of 162.84 earlier this week. A stronger US Dollar could pressure the Japanese Yen, but softer US data might curb upside potential if markets anticipate a less restrictive Fed path. Intervention risks remain if the pair stays near multidecade highs.

AUD/USD hovers near 0.6940 and is sensitive to China‑related sentiment and the broader USD trend. Recent stronger Australian PMIs and resilient Chinese services activity have provided support to the Aussie.

WTI crude oil trades near $68.80 per barrel and remains sensitive to supply expectations, geopolitical risks, and the upcoming OPEC+ meeting. Recent price declines back toward pre‑war levels have eased inflation concerns, though any shift in supply guidance could quickly restore volatility in energy markets.

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading above $4,175 and could sustain gains if US yields fall and Fed minutes indicate a less restrictive policy outlook. A rebound in the US Dollar, however, may cap upside momentum for the precious metal.

Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon

Monday, July 6

• Fed Governor Waller
• BoE’s Man
• ECB’s Schnabel
• ECB President Lagarde
• ECB’s Lane

Tuesday, July 7

Wednesday, July 8

Thursday, July 9

• BoE’s Breeden
• ECB President Lagarde
• ECB’s Cipollone

Friday, July 10

• ECB President Lagarde
• ECB’s Vujcic

Central bank meetings and policy decisions

The primary policy event next week will be the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s monetary policy review and OCR announcement on Wednesday, July 8, accompanied by an online media conference later that day. The minutes from the June 17 FOMC meeting will be published on Wednesday, and the ECB will release the account of its June policy meeting on Thursday. The Bank of England will issue its Financial Stability Report and FPC Record on Tuesday. No major interest‑rate decisions are expected from the Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ, RBA, or BoC during the week.

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