US President’s Proposal for Syrian Intervention in Lebanon Criticized as Strategically Flawed

Beirut, Lebanon – During a meeting at the White House on Tuesday with Lebanese counterpart Joseph Aoun, US President Donald Trump reiterated his suggestion that Syria could intervene in Lebanon to “do something with Hezbollah.”

Despite significant opposition, Trump has repeatedly proposed that Syria, under the leadership of President Ahmed al-Sharaa, could launch military operations in neighboring Lebanon. This follows intense US and Israeli pressure on the Lebanese government to disarm the Iran-backed militant group.

“[Al-Sharaa] would like to come in,” Trump asserted. “You know, they’ve been fighting. He’s been fighting Hezbollah for a long time. I think it’d be very effective. So it’s something I think about,” he stated.

However, on Wednesday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio appeared to downplay the likelihood of such an intervention.

“The Syrian authorities are not big fans of Hezbollah, but what we’ve encouraged Syria to do is to focus on its own internal challenges that it has in building a nation state,” Rubio told reporters.

Hezbollah served as a vital ally to Syria’s former President Bashar al-Assad prior to his removal by fighters led by al-Sharaa in 2024.

Bassel Doueik, a political and security researcher, argued that a military intervention aimed at disarming Hezbollah would be “strategically counterproductive” for Syria’s new administration, a position the new authorities have previously maintained.

“It would undermine establishing a stable relationship with the Lebanese state and could inadvertently strengthen Hezbollah’s domestic narrative. Hezbollah would almost certainly portray any Syrian military action as foreign aggression, allowing the group to reframe the situation as a resistance defending Lebanese sovereignty. Such a move could rally support from anti-Hezbollah segments of the population,” Doueik explained.

Syrian Animosity Toward Hezbollah

Syrian forces first entered Lebanon in 1976 during the early stages of the Lebanese Civil War (1975-1990). Syria occupied much of Lebanon—with the exception of the south, which remained under Israeli occupation until 2000—for nearly three decades, only withdrawing in 2005 following widespread protests.

When Syrians rose up against their own government in 2011, al-Assad responded with severe violence and suppression. As the opposition took up arms, Hezbollah intervened to support the al-Assad regime.

This intervention left a legacy of deep resentment among the Syrian population that persists today.

Analysts warn that a Syrian intervention in Lebanon could ignite regional sectarian tensions, risk renewed conflict between the two nations, and derail Syria’s post-war state-building efforts.

“A Syrian military return would reopen a deep wound in Lebanon’s political memory and provoke resistance even from communities that strongly oppose Hezbollah, because it would revive the experience of decades of Syrian control,” Nanar Hawach, a senior analyst on Syria at the International Crisis Group, told Al Jazeera.

“Regionally, it would cast doubt on Syria’s claim to have broken with past patterns of interference, while stretching a still-fragile transition and risking turning Syria, again, into a theatre of a regional conflict,” Hawach added.

A ‘Recipe for Disaster’

Concerns remain that military involvement could jeopardize Syria’s internal security, as the nation continues to face threats from remnants of the former regime and ISIL-affiliated groups.

Security analyst Samy Akil argued that despite Trump’s rhetoric, the broader US intelligence and defense community views such a move as a “recipe for disaster.”

Akil suggested that Syrian troops are unlikely to enter Lebanese territory; if they were to do so, it would likely only occur as part of a broader regional agreement.

“Getting into Lebanon is easy; getting out of Lebanon is always very difficult,” Akil noted, characterizing the potential intervention as a “short-sighted policy.”

Leverage and Pressure Tactics

Trump’s comments coincide with the deployment of the Lebanese army in “pilot zones,” as established by a US-brokered framework agreement signed between Lebanon and Israel last month. This agreement involves a gradual Israeli withdrawal and the deployment of Lebanese troops to prevent Hezbollah from re-establishing a presence in southern Lebanon.

Israel and Hezbollah have been engaged in conflict since October 2023, with escalations occurring in September 2024 and early March of this year, following the outbreak of US-Israel conflict with Iran.

Hawach suggested that Trump might be using the narrative of Syrian intervention as a tactic to signal that the US possesses multiple “levers” regarding the Lebanese conflict. This could unsettle Hezbollah, Iran, and Israel by applying multi-faceted pressure.

“It also serves a narrative of having partners who can do what Israel so far has not,” Hawach added. “Meanwhile, this gives Damascus an opportunity to look like the responsible actor by publicly refusing a role that would escalate the conflict.”

Rather than direct military action, Syria could theoretically support Lebanon’s efforts to disarm Hezbollah through other means.

“The most realistic scenario is that it remains within Syrian territory, not in Lebanon,” Souhaib Jawhar, a fellow at the Beirut-based Badil Policy Institute, told Al Jazeera.

“Strengthening the Syrian army’s presence on the Syrian side of the border, tightening control over illegal crossings, closing or destroying tunnels used for smuggling, and increasing security information exchange with the Lebanese army are all more realistic and politically acceptable steps.”

Rubio also suggested that Syria could combat Hezbollah without ground troops.

“Hezbollah is an enemy of this new government in Syria and they, in many ways, have sought to undermine that government over time. And one of the best things Syria can do to secure its future is to secure their border with Lebanon, so that we don’t have weapons and arms coming back and forth across that border in an effort to destabilise Syria,” he said.

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