US Space Command Unveils 2040 Space Warfare Strategy, Highlighting Ground Segment Vulnerabilities and Cislunar Operations

WASHINGTON — Space warfare in 2040 will be significantly more complex and hazardous than current operations, necessitating that the US joint force immediately develop the capabilities and operational concepts required to thrive in that environment, according to a foundational assessment by US Space Command (SPACECOM).

The paper, titled Space Warfighting Environment 2040, represents a first-of-its-kind document for US Space Command, according to a SPACECOM official speaking to Breaking Defense. As the first of three anticipated publications, it offers a comprehensive look at how the nation’s sole military space command views the foundational elements of the future extraterrestrial security landscape.

According to an Aug. 11 email from a member of the command’s Joint Forces Development and Training team, the document is designed to establish a shared understanding of the future space warfighting environment, laying the groundwork for subsequent concept development, force building, experimentation, and strategic planning.

According to a SPACECOM fact sheet, the document highlights four key emerging challenges that will shape the future of space combat:

• The vulnerability of fixed terrestrial space-enabling infrastructure.
• Proliferated dual-use commercial and military spacecraft capable of absorbing and regenerating under attack.
• In-space servicing and maneuver capabilities that transform orbital paths into dynamic networks.
• Quantum developments that reshape trust, timing, and secure communications.

A SPACECOM official, speaking anonymously, emphasized that the document’s focus on joint operations distinguishes it from previous future-oriented documents released by the Pentagon and the Space Force.

The Joint Forces Development and Training team collaborated to draft the 37-page document, which was officially signed by outgoing SPACECOM Commander Gen. Stephen Whiting on July 27.

The official clarified that the document is not intended to be predictive; rather, it was prompted by the rapid evolution of the space environment, which outpaces current US strategies and warfighting methodologies.

Additionally, the document aims to inform senior leaders across the Joint Force—many of whom are not space professionals—who have looked to SPACECOM to clearly articulate what future space warfare will entail and to establish the foundational assumptions necessary for future planning, concept development, capability acquisition, and force building.

Ultimately, SPACECOM’s goal is to provide an enduring framework that defines the future space warfighting environment from the perspective of the joint warfighter.

The document outlines the projected battlefield conditions that SPACECOM forces will encounter in 2040, detailing adversary threats, emerging technologies, and evolving capabilities.

As the document states, by 2040, space will be more crowded, contested, and integral to military operations. Innovation cycles, which once spanned decades, now occur within a single operational cycle, driven by commercial actors, allies, partners, and competitors. Advantage will belong to forces that can adapt, maneuver, and sustain trusted effects under pressure. While technology will continue to evolve, the core needs of the warfighter remain constant: to see, connect, decide, and act with trust and tempo.

In addition to the four emerging challenges, SPACECOM identifies nine key forces that will define the warfighter’s reality by 2040 and beyond, presenting both risks and opportunities:

• Quantum advancements transforming secure communication, timing, and trust.
• Proliferated dual-use spacecraft capable of absorbing and regenerating under attack.
• Advanced materials technology redefining stealth and deception.
• Direct-to-device connectivity keeping the tactical edge continuously linked.
• Optical and laser links facilitating quiet, secure data transmission.
• Artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled networks capable of rerouting and self-healing faster than adversaries can disrupt.
• Distributed, mobile, coalition-ready ground nodes that eliminate single points of failure.
• In-space servicing and maneuver capabilities turning orbit into a dynamic network.
• Stewardship challenges, including debris, traffic management, and norms shaping freedom of action.

Focus On Future Joint Warfighting, Not Kit

In his foreword, Gen. Whiting explained that The Space Warfighting Environment 2040 is the first in a planned trilogy of SPACECOM documents designed to frame the future of space operations for the Joint Force. The second document, titled The Space Futures Series, will offer issue-driven analysis of emerging challenges and problem sets. The final document, The Space Warfighting Concept, will guide how the joint force and SPACECOM will fight and win in space.

Thus, Space Warfighting Environment 2040 serves as the foundation for the other two documents in the trilogy, aiming to fill the current gap in space war thinking by focusing on the “how” rather than the “what” of future conflicts.

Much of the existing work across the Department of War focuses on technical capabilities, acquisition, or service-specific requirements. In contrast, The Space Warfighting Environment 2040 was deliberately written to be warfighter-first, not technology-first.

That distinction is crucial, the official emphasized.

Jessica West, a long-time space policy analyst at Canada’s Project Ploughshares, agreed that the document is centrally focused on space warfare, rather than providing a broader assessment of future national security challenges and opportunities, which is typical for such analyses.

This is essentially a warfighting concept presented as a futures document. It reveals less about what space will look like in 2040 than how US Space Command views the world today: as an increasingly integrated battlespace encompassing commercial services, civilian infrastructure, and cislunar space, she noted in an email to Breaking Defense.

The document clearly outlines how the United States might operate and prevail in a degraded and contested space environment. However, she expressed concern that it is less clear about how the nation will use its military space power to deter conflict or shape tomorrow’s environment for the benefit of civilians, industry, and the broader global community that depends on space.

It is a vision of power that largely overlooks the ultimate purpose that this power is meant to serve, West remarked.

Diverging (A Bit) With Space Force’s Vision Of The Future

The document’s emphasis on battlefield operations also explains why SPACECOM’s perspective on future threats and requirements differs slightly from the Space Force’s own 2040-focused document, Future Operating Environment, released in April by recently retired Chief of Space Operations Chance Saltzman. (SPACECOM is a US unified combatant command responsible for joint military operations above 100 km (62 miles) in altitude, incorporating warfighters from all military branches. The Space Force, on the other hand, is the military service tasked with organizing, training, and equipping Guardians to serve under SPACECOM and the other 10 combatant commands.)

For instance, SPACECOM’s document highlights vulnerabilities in the ground segment as a critical issue, a topic largely overlooked in the Space Force’s counterpart.

Furthermore, SPACECOM shines a spotlight on cislunar space as an emerging domain for military competition, whereas the Space Force has not expressed strong interest beyond the need to monitor adversary activity in the vast region between Earth and the moon.

Despite their differing focuses, the two documents are complementary, offering different yet mutually supporting perspectives on the future environment, the SPACECOM official explained. The Space Force’s Future Operating Environment 2040 examines the evolving character of warfare and its demands on the service, while SPACECOM’s Space Warfighting Environment 2040 approaches the future from the perspective of the combatant command and the joint warfighter.

A key similarity between both documents is their assertion of the rising dominance of artificial intelligence (AI), which will significantly accelerate the action-reaction cycle of any future conflict.

Both documents also emphasize the necessity for “maneuverability” and “agility” not only for satellites to evade attacks and track adversary spacecraft, but also in the overall execution of space operations.

John “Patsy” Klein, a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council, noted that SPACECOM’s document is particularly interesting for its novel contribution in discussing AI as part of mesh networks (kill-webs) and the need for sustained maneuver capabilities to enhance resilience.

Victoria Samson, chief director for space security and stability at the Secure World Foundation, highlighted the document’s broad focus on maneuverability—not just in space, but also on the ground and within the electromagnetic spectrum—as particularly noteworthy.

What really struck me was the focus on maneuverability and agility across the board in future SPACECOM operations, and not just in regards to on-orbit rendezvous and proximity operations, she added.

Furthermore, the SPACECOM official stated that at the strategic level, both documents are strongly aligned on the urgent need to prepare now to ensure US success in the space warfighting domain.

To achieve this, Gen. Whiting’s staff deliberately coordinated the development of Space Warfighting Environment 2040 with Space Force officials through the service’s component command to SPACECOM, as well as with the component commands of all other military services.

The intent is not to create competing visions of 2040, but to ensure that the service’s future force development and the combatant command’s warfighting requirements remain closely connected, the official added.

Vulnerable Ground Infrastructure

During the annual Army Space and Missile Defense Symposium in Huntsville, Alabama, on Aug. 12, Gen. Whiting told reporters that the SPACECOM futures document addresses numerous important facets and trends, making it difficult to single out the most critical.

However, he identified one of the most critical as the need to address vulnerabilities in US satellite ground infrastructure, which relies on fixed-site receivers and processing centers—whether connected to traditional networks of a few large satellites or the new mega-constellations in low Earth orbit, known as proliferated LEO (pLEO) constellations.

Not only are our satellites at risk, but our critical ground infrastructure is also vulnerable, as recent events in the Middle East have demonstrated. Therefore, anywhere we rely on fixed, centralized nodes, we must carefully consider how to make them as resilient as a pLEO constellation is compared to traditional satellite networks, Whiting explained.

The 2040 environment document elaborates: Static ground nodes, once the standard, will become liabilities. They represent single points of failure that adversaries can exploit via cyber intrusion, directed energy, precision strikes, or sabotage. In a future where space-enabled effects must survive an initial strike, fixed infrastructure will be targeted early and often.

SPACECOM’s concerns received a boost from the White House with a new executive order on space transportation signed by President Donald Trump. Citing the need to protect US launch facilities, the order directs the Pentagon and the Department of Homeland Security to develop a plan within 180 days to secure US infrastructure at federal launch sites, such as Vandenberg Space Force Base in California and Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida.

Simultaneously, Gen. Whiting emphasized in his Aug. 12 presentation that the US must develop weapon systems capable of neutralizing adversary pLEO constellations during a conflict to secure space superiority—a priority ranked second on his Integrated Priorities List for fiscal years 2029-2033. Targeting adversary ground systems represents one viable approach to achieving this.

Klein commended SPACECOM’s recognition of the importance of the ground and link segments of space systems, noting that many strategic discussions tend to focus solely on the in-space segment. He also praised the document’s emphasis on countering adversary gray-zone operations.

Cislunar: Challenging Assumptions, Expanding Views

A SPACECOM official explained that a critical aspect of The Space Warfighting Environment 2040 is that it is not designed to provide all the answers or prescribe exact operational procedures for the Joint Force in every aspect of the 2040 environment. Instead, its purpose is to challenge assumptions, broaden perspectives on future combat, and bring to light problems the Joint Force may not have fully considered.

The discussion of cislunar operations represents one such area, the official noted. The emphasis on cislunar space should not be interpreted as a sign that all associated operational concepts have already been resolved. Rather, it acknowledges that the future warfighting environment is expanding, and we must begin deliberately considering the implications now, rather than waiting until the challenges are fully upon us.

The document reiterates the Department of Defense’s long-standing concerns regarding potential conflicts arising from China’s plans for lunar exploration and exploitation. However, it suggests that the US military’s current interest in cislunar space is not about preparing for a war on or around the moon, but rather about the potential operational advantages of operating in that region.

What makes cislunar space relevant today is not speculation about future conflict, but the unique terrain itself. The region between Earth, the Moon, and the Lagrange points contains areas of gravitational stability, maneuver corridors, and vantage points where a military presence confers a distinct positional advantage, the document asserts.

It also suggests that the US stands to gain a first-mover advantage by being the first to occupy and control the use of the cislunar domain.

The SPACECOM official stressed that the cislunar region is increasingly important for understanding the challenges that the military services and the command will have to address in comprehending how future space wars will be fought.

While every aspect of how the Joint Force will operate in that environment by 2040 may not yet be fully realized, US Space Command is actively thinking about those challenges today, the official said.

This forward-thinking process is exactly the behavior the document aims to generate within the Joint Force, as well as among US allies, partners, industry, and academia. It provides a common framework to start asking harder questions, challenge existing assumptions, and explore the future warfighting requirements necessary for the joint warfighter to succeed, the official added.

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