US Weapons Stockpiles to Take Years to Rebuild After Iran Conflict, Expert Warns

Published On 28 May 202628 May 2026

The United States maintains sufficient munitions to address any potential scenarios in the Iran conflict, though restoring depleted stockpiles could require multiple years following the recent hostilities, according to a new report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

CSIS estimates that replenishing pre-conflict inventories of four critical munitions extensively used by U.S. forces during the nearly 40-day joint campaign with Israel against Iran will take at least two years—potentially longer in some cases. The Washington-based think tank released these findings on Wednesday.

While administration officials have voiced public confidence in current weapons reserves, analysts note that declining munition supplies may be influencing Washington’s calculations regarding potential escalation in Iran.

“Operations targeting Iran and its proxies—as well as Patriot interceptor deployments to support Ukraine—have intensified this challenge,” the CSIS report observed.

“Beyond restocking its own inventories, the United States must also fulfill commitments to allied and partner nations.”

A CSIS analysis released the previous month identified four key munitions that dropped to more than half their pre-war levels: Land Attack Missiles (TLAM), Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors, Patriot missiles, and ship-based SM-3 and SM-6 surface-to-air missiles.

The Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM) and Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) are projected to require several months to a year for full replacement. CSIS noted that pre-war PrSM stocks were already limited due to early production stages, while JASSM—heavily utilized during the Iran conflict—benefits from recent procurement increases.

“Allocation decisions for new production have already sparked bilateral tensions, and this friction is expected to persist for years as demand outstrips manufacturing capacity,” the report cautioned.

The primary constraint is not funding but rather production timelines, manufacturing bottlenecks, and extended procurement lead times. CSIS emphasized that historically low procurement rates for many systems have slowed replacement efforts despite increased defense spending.

“A multi-year vulnerability gap will persist until inventories recover to previous levels, followed by additional years to reach the levels war planners deem operationally sufficient,” the institute warned.

Dubbed a “strategic inventory shock,” the depletion impacts broader military readiness. While U.S. combat experience in recent conflicts may help preserve deterrence against China during replenishment, emerging evidence shows critical missile-defense interceptors were consumed at rates exceeding even Israeli usage during the 40-day Iran conflict.

In related developments, the U.S. Navy recently suspended $14 billion in approved weapons sales to Taiwan pending presidential approval, citing urgent munitions demands tied to the Iran campaign.

“This isn’t tactical exhaustion but rather a strategic inventory shock affecting multiple operational theaters,” explained Omar Ashour, professor of security and military studies at Qatar’s Doha Institute for Graduate Studies.

CSIS further cautioned that while the U.S. currently possesses enough missiles to sustain operations against Iran, the risk “which will endure for many years, concerns future conflicts.”

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