The short‑term bias for USD/CAD stays neutral. A consolidation around the 1.4247 level could develop further, with a possible additional decline. However, the downside appears capped near the former resistance at 1.3965, now acting as support. Should the pair break above 1.4247, the rally from 1.3480 would resume, targeting the 61.8% Fibonacci extension of the 1.4791‑1.3480 move at 1.4290. A sustained break above that level would clear the path toward the previous high at 1.4791.
From a broader perspective, the decline from 1.4791 appears to have finished as a three‑wave correction, bringing the pair to 1.3480. It is still too early to determine whether the subsequent rise is a corrective bounce or the resumption of the longer‑term uptrend that began at the 2021 low of 1.2005. In either scenario, a retest of the 1.4791 peak is expected next.
