![Iran Holds Funeral for Late Supreme Leader Khamenei Amid Ongoing War and Mourning]](https://i2.wp.com/i.abcnewsfe.com/a/a1bd2574-d954-4c5b-81c7-a03f2851c24a/wirestory_f7168b934d457bdb8b8a2da855d1d03a_16x9.jpg?w=1600&w=1024&resize=1024,1024&ssl=1 "Iran Holds Funeral for Late Supreme Leader Khamenei Amid Ongoing War and Mourning]")
USD/CAD continued to trade in a narrow range, staying below the 1.4247 level over the past week, leaving the overall outlook unchanged. The initial bias for the current week is neutral. Although a deeper correction cannot be excluded, any downside movement is expected to find support around the former resistance zone at 1.3965. Should the pair break above 1.4247, the rally that began at 1.3480—representing a 61.8% retracement of the 1.4791‑to‑1.3480 decline—will likely resume, targeting the 1.4290 level. A sustained breach above that threshold would open the door for a return to the 1.4791 high.
From a broader perspective, the recent decline from 1.4791 appears to have completed a three‑wave corrective pattern, bottoming at 1.3480. It remains uncertain whether the subsequent rise constitutes a short‑term corrective bounce or marks the resumption of the longer‑term uptrend that began at the 2021 low of 1.2005. In either scenario, a retest of the 1.4791 peak is anticipated as the next key price target.
Over the longer horizon, the 55‑period moving average (currently at 1.3631) continues to slope upward, suggesting that the uptrend originating at the 2007 low of 0.9056 may still be intact. However, the presence of bearish divergence on the MACD and a sustained close below the 55‑period MA would imply that the prior advance completed a five‑wave structure at 1.4791, shifting the medium‑term outlook to bearish and pointing toward a potential correction to the 38.2% Fibonacci level of the 0.9056‑to‑1.4791 move, i.e., around 1.2600.
