The intraday stance on USD/JPY remains neutral, with the outlook unchanged. A decisive break below the 160.58 support level would confirm a short‑term top, especially given the bearish divergence observed on the 4‑hour MACD. Should this occur, the pair could fall toward the 55‑day EMA at 159.46 and potentially lower.
Conversely, a clear break above the 161.94 high would reignite the longer‑term uptrend, targeting the 100 % Fibonacci projection range of 152.25–160.71, with the next resistance near 163.47.
On a broader timeframe, the corrective pattern that began at the 2024 high of 161.94 appears to have concluded around 139.87. A rise from that level would signal the resumption of the long‑term bullish trend, provided the 55‑week EMA at 155.17 remains intact.
