The USD/JPY pair advanced to 159.02 during the previous week before retreating. The near-term bias remains neutral for the current week. A move above 159.02 targets the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 163.97 to 152.87 decline, situated at 159.72. Conversely, a decisive break below the 156.81 support would shift the bias back to the downside, indicating a deeper pullback.
On a broader scale, the price action from the 163.97 medium-term peak is interpreted as a correction of the advance from 139.87. The initial leg of this correction likely concluded at 152.87, just ahead of the 152.25 structural support. A sustained breakthrough above the 55-day Exponential Moving Average (currently at 158.22) would open the path for a retest of the 163.97 high. However, strong resistance is expected there to cap any upside. Another declining leg is likely before the corrective pattern fully completes.
The long-term outlook remains bullish provided the 139.87 support holds, even in the event of a deep pullback. The overarching uptrend originating from the 2011 low of 75.56 is still poised to resume once the current correction from 163.97 concludes.
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