USD/JPY’s uptrend resumed last week with no indication of a top forming. The initial bias remains tilted to the upside this week, targeting the 138.2% projection of the 152.25 to 160.71 advance from 155.01 at 166.07. On the downside, a break below minor support at 163.02 would shift the intraday bias to neutral initially, though the broader outlook stays bullish as long as the 160.46 support level holds, even in the event of a retreat.
In the bigger picture, the rise from the 2025 low of 139.87 is viewed as another ascending leg within the long-term uptrend. The next target lies at the 61.8% projection of the 139.87 to 159.44 move from 152.25, calculated at 164.34. A decisive break there would set the stage for the 100% projection at 171.82. For now, the outlook remains constructive as long as the 159.44 level—former resistance turned support—holds, even in the case of a deeper pullback.
From a long-term perspective, the uptrend originating from the 2011 low of 75.56 remains in progress. The next medium-term objective is the 61.8% projection of the 102.58 (2020 low) to 161.94 (2024 high) range from 139.87, located at 176.55. The long-term outlook stays bullish provided the 139.87 support base holds, even against a significant correction.
