USD/JPY continued its consolidation near 162.83, posting another downward leg last week. The overall outlook remains unchanged, with an initial neutral bias. Although a deeper drop cannot be excluded, downside is likely limited by the 38.2% retracement of the move from 155.01 to 162.83, around 159.84. On the upside, a break above the 161.63 minor resistance would shift intraday bias to neutral. In summary, consolidation is expected to persist below 162.83 for the near term.
Looking at the broader context, the advance from the 2025 low of 139.87 represents another leg of the long‑term uptrend. The next objective is the 61.8% projection of the move from 139.87 to 159.44, measured from 152.25, which lies near 164.34. For the time being, the bullish outlook remains intact as long as the 155.01 support level holds, even if a deeper pullback occurs.
In the long‑term view, the uptrend that began at the 2011 low of 75.56 continues and may be poised to resume. A decisive break above 161.94 would set the next medium‑term target at the 61.8% projection of the move from the 2020 low of 102.58 to the 2024 high of 161.94, calculated from 139.87, which points to roughly 176.55. The long‑term bullish bias will persist as long as the 139.87 support level remains intact, even amid a deep correction.
