The wheat complex showed mixed trading on Thursday, with Kansas City hard red winter wheat leading gains while Chicago soft red wheat declined. Milling spring wheat contracts rose 1 to 3 cents at midday, while Chicago SRW futures posted fractional losses.
Federal Agricultural Statistics released weekly export sales data showing 95,094 metric tons of old crop wheat sold for the final four days of the 2025/26 marketing year, within the estimated range of 100,000 to 100,000 tons. Unshipped old crop sales totaled 298,570 MT carried over from the previous marketing year. New crop sales of 666,259 MT exceeded the trade estimate range of 200,000 to 600,000 MT.
According to the monthly Crop Production report, U.S. winter wheat production was estimated at 1.029 billion bushels, down 18 million bushels from last month and below expectations. Yield projections were reduced by 0.8 bushels per acre to 46.8 bushels per acre, with harvested acres unchanged. The production decline was primarily driven by hard red winter wheat, down 18 million bushels to 496.9 million bushels, while soft red winter wheat decreased 0.6 million bushels to 300.25 million bushels.
In the Wasde report, old crop U.S. stocks remained steady at 935 million bushels, while new crop carryout was reduced by 18 million bushels to 744 million bushels due to lower production. Global carryout for 2025/26 increased 0.74 million metric tons to 279.95 million metric tons, with new crop up 0.38 million metric tons to 275.42 million metric tons. Australian production was revised down 2 million metric tons to 28 million metric tons, while Russian output increased 2 million metric tons to 88 million metric tons.
European Union wheat production estimates from Expana reached 129.2 million metric tons, up 0.4 million metric tons from the previous month.
