Valuation Gap Suggests Planet Labs May Outpace SpaceX in 2026

Key Points

Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX), known as SpaceX, debuted via IPO in June amid high expectations. Despite an initial surge, the stock has since retreated below its offering price.

The pullback likely stems from an extremely elevated valuation. This premium is so pronounced that Planet Labs (NYSE: PL)—which SpaceX has outperformed to date—is positioned to deliver superior returns (or smaller losses) for 2026.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

The State of SpaceX and Planet Labs

Beyond their shared focus on space and satellites, SpaceX and Planet Labs operate fundamentally different businesses. Planet Labs deploys a constellation of satellites to generate daily, high-resolution imagery of Earth. SpaceX, by contrast, focuses on launch services and its Starlink satellite internet network.

Planet Labs relies heavily on SpaceX’s launch infrastructure, and SpaceX operates at a vastly larger scale. Its market capitalization of approximately $1.6 trillion dwarfs Planet Labs’ roughly $8 billion valuation.

PL data by YCharts

Valuation metrics highlight a stark divergence. Currently, SpaceX trades at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 84, significantly higher than Planet Labs’ multiple of 22. Both exceed the S&P 500’s (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) average P/S of 3.7. However, analysts project Planet Labs’ revenue will accelerate to 42% growth in fiscal 2027, up from 26% in fiscal 2026 (ended Jan. 31). At that trajectory, a sales multiple in the low 20s is reasonable.

An 84-times-sales multiple is rare, raising questions about whether Elon Musk’s track record justifies such a premium. While SpaceX posted 33% revenue growth in 2025 and forecasts suggest a 109% surge in 2026—which contextualizes the valuation—that lofty multiple leaves the stock vulnerable to sharp sell-offs on any negative developments.

Planet Labs is not immune to adverse news, but its lower valuation provides a larger margin of safety and room for multiple expansion if results exceed expectations.

SpaceX Likely Has Further to Fall

Of the two equities, SpaceX carries the higher risk of significant decline over the remainder of the year.

It is worth noting that Planet Labs’ share price has declined more steeply than SpaceX’s since the latter’s IPO, and neither stock qualifies as inexpensive; both could finish 2026 in negative territory. However, purchasing any company at 84 times sales implies a reliance on flawless execution—a scenario that rarely materializes.

Given the improbability of perfect performance, investors should anticipate further near-term pressure on SpaceX shares. Conversely, with less valuation pressure, Planet Labs is better positioned to stabilize or limit downside risk moving forward.

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