Washington brought a memorandum to a war made of history

American power has a tell. When faced with a war it wants to end, Washington develops a comprehensive plan that includes phased withdrawals, monitoring arrangements, economic incentives, and a timeline. It then acts as though the document itself were the peace.

This has gone on for decades, through one Middle Eastern conflict after another, with the same confidence in the process and the expectation of the same result. One side flies in with hope and a document. The other lives with history. That gap has defeated every agreement before this one, and no drafting exercise has ever closed it.

Sanctions waivers are being issued, while the most difficult issues are being postponed to future negotiations that have yet to start. The key promise—that Iran will not develop a nuclear bomb—has been repeatedly made by Tehran over the years.

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