West Bank on Edge: Escalating Violence and Political Despair Raise Specter of New Uprising

As violence by Israeli settlers against Palestinians in the West Bank has escalated—often with military acquiescence or support—and the Israeli government has increasingly constricted Palestinian daily life, the potential for a new intifada has intensified. The first Palestinian intifada began in late 1987 and continued for several years, organized largely through civil society with broad popular participation, economic strikes, and boycotts. The second intifada broke out in 2000 and lasted into 2005, proving far more violent and reflecting disillusionment with the peace process, mounting Israeli restrictions, and the rise of Hamas. Conditions for Palestinians have not improved since 2005 and have deteriorated sharply since the current government took office in late 2022, particularly after the October 7 attacks, producing significant potential for renewed unrest. We asked four experts about what might spark an intifada, what might prevent it, and what a new uprising might look like.

Nathan Brown, Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at George Washington University, explains that while “intifada” can describe different phenomena, any sustained uprising requires organization. The first drew on decades of local, associational, and factional networks and was broadly popular, with widespread participation and strong social solidarity. The second quickly became militarized, dominated by armed groups and leaving much of the population as spectators. Conditions today are far worse than in 1987 or 2000, with virtually no sense of a political future and no shortage of grievances.

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