Wheat Futures Decline as USDA Data Weighs on Market Sentiment]

Wheat futures slipped across major exchanges on Monday, pressured by U.S. Department of Agriculture data that showed largely accommodating supply projections. Chicago soft red winter wheat futures fell 6½ cents to $5.15¼, while Kansas City hard red winter wheat dropped 9½ cents to $5.08. Minneapolis spring wheat lost 9½ cents, closing at $5.84.

The weekly Crop Progress report revealed robust planting conditions, with spring wheat at 66% planted—ahead of the 59% historical average—and emergence at 27%, eight points above normal. Winter wheat heading reached 53%, outpacing the 45% typical pace. Crop conditions improved slightly, with 54% rated good-to-excellent, up 3% from the prior week. The Brugler500 index rose 4 points to 338.

In the Crop Production report, U.S. winter wheat output totaled 1.382 billion bushels, including 784 million bushels of hard red winter, 345 million of soft red winter, and 253 million of white winter wheat. The all-wheat production figure of 1.921 billion bushels exceeded trade expectations.

As of May, old-crop US inventories stand at 841 million bushels, down 5 million from April. New-crop projections call for 923 million bushels. Globally, USDA raised outlook by 4.51 million metric tons to 265.21 million, with new-crop ending stocks at 265.73 million.

Export inspections showed 14.88 million bushels of wheat shipped the week ended May 8, down 1.6% from the previous week but 5.8% above the same period in 2024. Shipments for the marketing year have reached 20.28 million metric tons—up 14.8% year-over-year.

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