The wheat market ended Wednesday largely higher, but closed below earlier intraday peaks. Chicago Standard Wheat Futures (SRW) climbed 2¼ to 4¾ cents across most expirations, while Kansas City Hard Red Winter (HRW) contracts settled 5¼ cents higher, except for July which slipped ¼ cent. Front-months gained between ½ and 1½ cents, and Minneapolis–St. Paul spring wheat was marginally up during the midweek session.
Export sales data from the Federation of American Societies (FAS) will be released Thursday morning. Traders are anticipating net reductions of 100,000 metric tons (MT) in sales versus the prior week for the last half of the 2025/26 marketing year. New crop sales for the week of June 4 are projected to range from 200,000 to 600,000 MT.
US wheat production figures will be updated Thursday with the monthly Crop Production report. Bloomberg analysts predict 1.555 billion bushels (bbu) of US wheat production, a slight decline from the previous estimate of 1.04 bbu. Hard Red Winter output is expected to fall 7 mbu to 508 mbu, while Standard Wheat should rise 1 mbu to 302 mbu. Ending stocks for the old crop are seen at 941 mbu—up 6 mbu from May if realized. New crop carry‑out is estimated at 764 mbu, a modest 2 mbu increase.
Coceral forecasts the European Union and UK wheat crops at 143.7 million metric tons (MMT) for this year, up 1.1 MMT from the previous projection.
Recent closing prices (for reference):
- July 26 CBOT Wheat – $5.87 ½, up 2 ¼ cents
- September 26 CBOT Wheat – $5.99 ½, up 2 ¾ cents
- July 26 KCBT Wheat – $6.30 ½, down ¼ cent
- September 26 KCBT Wheat – $6.40 ¼, flat
- July 26 MIAX Wheat – $6.18, up ½ cent
- September 26 MIAX Wheat – $6.44 ½, up ¼ cent