Wheat Prices Trend Lower Amid Black Sea Uncertainty and Weak Export Data

Wheat markets are experiencing downward pressure as traders reduce positions ahead of the weekend, following recent developments in the Black Sea region. At midday, Chicago SRW contracts have declined by 18 to 20 cents. Similarly, KC HRW futures are down 17 to 18 cents, and Minneapolis spring wheat is falling by 17 to 18 cents for the session.

In the Black Sea, Ukraine has proposed measures to maintain vessel movement, although a formal agreement between Ukraine and Russia has yet to be reached.

Recent FAS export sales data indicates that new crop accumulated sales have reached 6.68 MMT, representing a 26% decrease compared to last year. This figure accounts for 32% of the USDA export projection, trailing the five-year average of 37%.

Results from the annual spring wheat tour were published Thursday, showing an average estimate of 48 bpa. While this is slightly lower than last year’s 49.0 bpa, it remains higher than the five-year average of 45.8 bpa.

Regarding global supply, IKAR projects the Russian wheat crop at 90 MMT, with 2026/27 exports anticipated at 44.5 MMT. Meanwhile, the latest FranceAgriMer update estimates the French wheat crop at 65% gd/ex, even as harvest progress is reported at 99% completion.

Sep 26 CBOT Wheat is at $6.76 1/4, down 20 cents,
Dec 26 CBOT Wheat is at $6.94, down 19 3/4 cents,
Sep 26 KCBT Wheat is at $7.42 1/4, down 17 1/2 cents,
Dec 26 KCBT Wheat is at $7.58 1/4, down 17 1/2 cents,
Sep 26 MIAX Wheat is at $7.12 1/4, down 17 3/4 cents,
Dec 26 MIAX Wheat is at $7.36, down 17 cents.

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