Wheat emerged as the standout performer in the grain markets on Friday, posting double-digit gains across major exchanges. Chicago SRW futures rose 15¼ to 20¾ cents on the day, with the September contract up 40½ cents for the week. Kansas City HRW wheat futures climbed 17¾ to 22 cents, while September contracts advanced 37¾ cents weekly. Minneapolis spring wheat futures gained 11½ to 14¼ cents, with September contracts increasing 33¾ cents from the prior week’s close.
Prices accelerated after reports surfaced that Russia is restricting wheat exports via the Don-Azov Canal, which handles approximately 25% of the country’s grain shipments.
Weekly Commitment of Traders data revealed managed money funds in Chicago Board of Trade (CBT) wheat contracts reduced their net short positions by 6,705 contracts as of July 7, leaving a net short of 62,325. Meanwhile, long positions in Kansas City wheat increased by 4,845 contracts, reaching a net long of 11,764.
The latest Crop Production report showed total U.S. wheat production at 1.536 billion bushels, down 7 million from the previous estimate. Winter wheat output missed expectations at 990 million bushels, a 40 million bushel decline from last month, while spring wheat production reached 475 million bushels, exceeding forecasts. The USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report projected U.S. wheat carryover at 722 million bushels, a 22 million bushel decrease from last month, driven by a 15 million bushel reduction in 2025/26 ending stocks.
Global wheat stocks were revised downward by 2.78 million metric tons to 272.84 million metric tons in the WASDE report. Notable declines included Argentina (-0.5 MMT), Canada (-0.42 MMT), and the European Union (-0.3 MMT). Additionally, Coceral reduced its EU and UK wheat production estimate to 140.8 MMT, while FranceAgriMer reported French wheat crop ratings fell 3 percentage points to 65% good/excellent, with harvest progress at 29%.
Sep 26 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.40¼, up 20½ cents,
Dec 26 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.54½, up 20½ cents,
Sep 26 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.76¼, up 22 cents,
Dec 26 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.90¼, up 22 cents,
Sep 26 MIAX Wheat closed at $6.53½, up 13½ cents,
Dec 26 MIAX Wheat closed at $6.74¼, up 14 cents,
On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not hold positions in any securities mentioned. All content is for informational purposes.
