White House Initiates Review of CFTC Prediction-Market Rule Amid Trump’s Advocacy for Federal Oversight

The White House’s Office of Regulatory Affairs is reviewing a proposed CFTC rule concerning prediction markets, a filing that could influence how platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket operate nationwide.

According to a RegInfo.gov entry, the proposal was submitted to the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs on May 26 under Executive Order 12866, initiating a review of the CFTC’s proposed “Prediction Markets” rule. The filing does not contain the full text of the rule.

This action represents one of the clearest indications that the CFTC is moving toward a comprehensive federal framework for event contracts, after months of legal and political disputes concerning sports and election markets.

Illinois, New Jersey, and other states contend that sports‑linked event contracts essentially function as online betting markets. Kalshi and the CFTC maintain that designated contract markets, governed by federal commodities law, are subject to the agency’s exclusive jurisdiction.

The executive order establishes the procedure for reviewing major federal regulations before publication, mandating that agencies conduct economic and policy analyses for significant rules. The Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA), an OMB division, supervises this process.

The timing follows days after President Donald Trump publicly endorsed the CFTC’s authority over prediction markets, a stance previously highlighted by CoinDesk, which described it as “critically important” for the agency to retain “exclusive authority” over the sector in a Truth Social post.

The proposal builds on a March advance notice of proposed rulemaking in which the CFTC requested public comment on which prediction market contracts could be barred as “contrary to the public interest,” encompassing contracts related to elections, gaming, and sports.

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