Who Will Reach the 2026 World Cup Semifinals? Latest Odds & Host Nation Japan Leads Competition

With 48 teams competing and a grueling path through the knockout stage, reaching the semifinals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup will be an accomplishment in itself.

Only four nations will survive the tournament’s first 100 matches and earn a spot in the final four, putting themselves within two victories of lifting the most coveted trophy in sports.

Now that the group stage is concluded, here’s an updated look at the latest odds for teams to reach the semifinals, based on FanDuel Sportsbook data as of June 28.

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Teams Odds to Reach Semifinals

Argentina: -150 (bet $10 to win $16.67 total)
France: +105 (bet $10 to win $20.50 total)
England: +135 (bet $10 to win $23.50 total)
Spain: +140 (bet $10 to win $24 total)
Brazil: +270 (bet $10 to win $37 total)
Portugal: +300 (bet $10 to win $40 total)
Netherlands: +340 (bet $10 to win $44 total)
Germany: +370 (bet $10 to win $47 total)
Colombia: +440 (bet $10 to win $54 total)
USA: +500 (bet $10 to win $60 total)
Norway: +600 (bet $10 to win $70 total)
Switzerland: +600 (bet $10 to win $70 total)
Belgium: +650 (bet $10 to win $75 total)
Mexico: +800 (bet $10 to win $90 total)
Morocco: +850 (bet $10 to win $95 total)
Japan: +1100 (bet $10 to win $120 total)
Egypt: +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total)
Senegal: +1500 (bet $10 to win $160 total)
Croatia: +1600 (bet $10 to win $170 total)
Ecuador: +1800 (bet $10 to win $190 total)
Ghana: +1900 (bet $10 to win $200 total)
Canada: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
Ivory Coast: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)

Here’s what to know about this oddsboard:

The Top 10: Argentina, France, Spain, England, Portugal, Brazil, the Netherlands and Germany — all considered powerhouse countries — stand at the top of the board, with each nation listed at +360 or better to reach the semifinals. But right after that group? The USA and Norway. The Americans have never made it to the semifinals of the World Cup, and this is Norway’s first appearance in the tournament since 1998.

The Favorite: After sweeping its group games in dominating fashion, Argentina has climbed to the top of the oddsboard. A big reason Argentina is favored in this market — but not in the outright World Cup winner market — is its path through the knockout stage. While several of the tournament’s top contenders are on course to face each other as early as the Round of 16 or quarterfinals, Argentina has landed on a much more favorable side of the bracket. That easier route gives it the best odds to reach the semifinals, even though France remains the favorite to win the World Cup overall.

Biggest Risers: After its impressive draw against Portugal, Colombia has clinched Group K. As a result, its odds to reach the semifinals have jumped from +600 to +450. Additionally, Switzerland has moved up the oddsboard from +800 to +600 after winning Group B.

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