Winter’s Entry and Arab Coalition Reshape Israeli Political Landscape, Survey Shows

The entry of Ofer Winter into the political arena, combined with the merger of three Arab parties, has significantly disrupted Israel’s political equilibrium, according to a new poll released by Maariv on Friday.

The Zionist opposition bloc, weakened by one seat, now holds 59 seats, while unified Arab parties have strengthened their position to 13 seats, according to the survey conducted by Lazar Research under the leadership of Dr. Menachem Lazar, in partnership with Panel4ALL.

The data indicates that Winter’s candidacy has introduced new complications within the coalition. Without his participation, the bloc supporting Benjamin Netanyahu would secure 43 seats; with his inclusion, that number rises to 48. Winter’s People of Israel party, receiving five seats in the poll, effectively pushes the Religious Zionism Party led by Bezalel Smotrich below the electoral threshold.

Another notable finding: none of the parties in the emerging third bloc surpass the electoral threshold. Combined with Religious Zionism, these parties represent approximately 8% of the vote, equivalent to roughly 10 seats that are effectively excluded from parliamentary representation.

The poll also reveals that the unification between Hadash-Ta’al and Balad has bolstered the Arab party bloc. This three-way merger grants them eight seats, in addition to the five seats secured by Ra’am, led by Mansour Abbas.

The shifts are apparent both within the coalition bloc, where Otzma Yehudit loses one seat and declines to eight, and within the opposition bloc, where Yashar falls by one seat to 25, while B’yachad gains one seat to reach 15. However, these changes remain relatively minor.

Overall, the coalition bloc stands at 43 seats, rising to 48 when Winter’s party is included—one seat fewer than in the previous survey. Meanwhile, the Zionist opposition bloc holds 59 seats, also one seat fewer than previously recorded.

Religious Zionism (3%), The Zionist Home-The Reservists (2%), the Economic Party (1.5%), and Blue and White (0.6%) fail to cross the electoral threshold. The proportion of undecided voters in the current poll stands at 11.5%.

The latest poll results indicate the projected Knesset composition would be as follows:

Yashar: 25 (-1)

Likud: 20 (Unchanged)

B’Yachad: 15 (+1)

Democrats: 10 (Unchanged)

Yisrael Beytenu: 9 (-1)

Otzma Yehudit: 8 (-1)

United Torah Judaism: 8 (Unchanged)

Hadash-Ta’al and Balad: 8 (+2)

Shas: 7 (Unchanged)

People of Israel, led by Winter: 5 (New)

Ra’am: 5 (Unchanged)

Israelis Dissatisfied with Education System, Concerned About Curriculum Content

With the new school year approaching, the Maariv poll reveals that an overwhelming majority of Israelis (74%) express dissatisfaction with Israel’s public education system, compared with 70% who felt the same way in August 2023.

Only 18% reported satisfaction, down from 23% in 2023, while 8% had no opinion, compared with 7% previously.

A majority of Israelis (62%) with children enrolled in the education system, from kindergarten through 12th grade, express concern about content being introduced into their children’s schools that does not align with their values and worldview.

Conversely, 28% stated they were not concerned, while 10% were undecided.

This concern spans political affiliations. The most concerned are supporters of Arab parties (80%), followed by opposition voters (61%), while 57% of those intending to vote for coalition parties also expressed concern.

Among Jewish Israelis, the most concerned are secular citizens (72%, compared with 19% who are not concerned), while religious Israelis show the least concern (41%, compared with 50% who are not).

Netanyahu Trails Eisenkot and Bennett, but Maintains Lead Over Lieberman

The poll also reveals that Gadi Eisenkot leads Benjamin Netanyahu in suitability for prime minister, with 48% compared with 37%. Naftali Bennett also surpasses Netanyahu, with 45% versus 40%.

When compared against Avigdor Lieberman, Netanyahu receives 40%, while 37% consider Lieberman more suitable for the position.

The poll was conducted from August 16 to 27. A total of 4,116 people were invited to participate, and 506 respondents completed the survey (12%), representing a representative sample of Israel’s adult population aged 18 and over, both Jewish and Arab. The maximum sampling error is 4.4%.

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