The Wisconsin Badgers host the Michigan State Spartans on Saturday in a pivotal Big Ten matchup at Camp Randall Stadium, with both programs seeking momentum in conference play.
Wisconsin enters the game with a 3-1 record, highlighted by last week’s stunning upset over then-No. 13 Penn State. Despite quarterback Colton Joseph throwing three interceptions, the Badgers erased a 17-point deficit on the road at Beaver Stadium, holding Penn State to just three points in the second half. Joseph found tight end Jacob Harris for a crucial 72-yard touchdown with under a minute remaining, sealing a dramatic fourth-quarter comeback victory.
Michigan State arrives in Madison reeling from a 14-point loss to Nebraska, where the Spartans managed only three touchdowns while surrendering nine sacks and committing five turnovers over their last two games. Quarterback Alessio Milivojevic continues to struggle under pressure, having already been sacked 14 times this season—tied for the most in the nation.
Despite being picked to finish near the bottom of the Big Ten, the Spartans have shown flashes of competitiveness, though their offensive execution remains inconsistent. Their defense has performed adequately but lacks the explosive plays needed to consistently generate stops against quality opponents.
Wisconsin’s offense has also faced challenges, ranking poorly in most major offensive categories across the conference. However, their special teams and timely defensive plays have helped them capitalize on opportunities when they matter most.
With both teams struggling offensively and relying heavily on their defenses, this matchup projects as a tightly contested, low-scoring affair. The winner will look to build confidence moving forward in Big Ten play.
Michigan State @ Wisconsin Odds
Moneyline
- Wisconsin: -420 (bet $10 to win $12.38 total)
- Michigan State: +320 (bet $10 to win $42.00 total)
Spread
- Wisconsin -9.5: -104 (bet $10 to win $19.62 total)
- Michigan State +9.5: -118 (bet $10 to win $18.47 total)
Over/Under
- Over 43.5: -110 (bet $10 to win $19.09 total)
- Under 43.5: -110 (bet $10 to win $19.09 total)
Michigan State @ Wisconsin Prediction, Pick
From FOX Sports Research:
Over their last two games, Michigan State has been outscored 58-23, managing just three touchdowns while allowing nine sacks and committing five turnovers.
Through four games, the Spartans rank last in the Big Ten in total yards per game, passing yards per game, and scoring offense. Their defense performs around the conference median in key statistical categories, but that unit alone cannot consistently carry the team against stronger opponents.
Wisconsin’s remarkable upset over Penn State marked their highest-profile victory since 2021, yet the Badgers continue to battle inconsistencies offensively. Like their opponents, they rank near the bottom of the conference in several offensive metrics, while their defense remains solid but unremarkable overall.
The disparity between Wisconsin’s 3-1 start and Michigan State’s 2-2 record can largely be attributed to critical plays that have favored the Badgers in recent weeks. Given the offensive struggles from both sides and the strength of their respective defenses, a conservative, low-scoring game is the most likely outcome.
Bet the under at 43.5 points.
The Pick: Under 43.5
How to Watch Michigan State vs. Nebraska
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 3rd, 2026
- Time: 12:30 p.m. ET
- TV: BTN
- Stream: Watch 3 days free on FOX One, FOXSports.com, FOX Sports App
- Location: Camp Randall Stadium, Madison, Wisconsin
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