LAS VEGAS (AP) — Sportsbook operators had high expectations for this year’s World Cup, citing favorable conditions such as the tournament’s location in North America and the U.S. team’s historic talent. The event has now surpassed projections, with betting volumes reaching unprecedented levels.
The convergence of live viewing opportunities for U.S. audiences during daylight hours and the team’s strong start—winning its first two matches to lead the group—has drawn significant attention. Mark Bickerdike, Caesars Sportsbook’s head of soccer trading, stated, “It has exceeded our expectations in terms of the money being bet.”
DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello compared the 48-team tournament’s betting activity to the NCAA Tournament, noting, “It could be the biggest event of the year when it’s all said and done.” He added, “March Madness takes place over three weeks and generates substantial revenue. This is approaching that level. It blows the Super Bowl away—those are just single games on a single day.”
BetMGM Sportsbook trading manager Christian Cipollini highlighted the growing enthusiasm for the U.S. team ahead of its knockout-stage match against Bosnia-Herzegovina in Santa Clara, California. He predicted, “This will likely be BetMGM’s most bet-on soccer game ever. All three of our highest-wagered games so far have involved the U.S., and this one combines strong team performance with immense hype.”
France and Argentina Set for Potential Final Showdown
France, led by Kylian Mbappé, remains the favorite, followed closely by Argentina and Lionel Messi. Both teams occupy opposite brackets, meaning a final clash would mirror their 2022 encounter. At BetMGM, France accounted for 15.3% of bets and 20.4% of total money, narrowly trailing Spain’s 20.5% share, much of which was placed pre-tournament.
Veteran handicapper Bruce Marshall cautioned against overconfidence in favorites, stating, “Seven or eight teams could realistically win this. At this stage, betting on favorites might not offer great value.”
Long-Shot Wagers Gain Traction
American bettors are increasingly favoring underdogs, with wagers on teams offering steep odds. “People want to chase long shots for small stakes,” Avello explained. “A $5 bet on Congo could yield $5,000, and these liabilities add up quickly.” Marshall recommended Colombia (33-1 odds) and Switzerland (66-1) as value plays, citing Colombia’s strong performances in Mexico and Switzerland’s cohesive team chemistry.
Sportsbooks Face Risks as U.S. Team Advances
The U.S. team’s odds have shortened significantly—from 50-1 to 25-1 at BetMGM, and 30-1 at Caesars and DraftKings—amid growing belief in their chances. Cipollini acknowledged the financial implications: “If the U.S. wins, it would hurt the books. Their success has made fans think, ‘They have a real shot,’ especially on home soil.”
Cultural Curiosity Influences Bets
Some bettors are wagering on a Mexico-Portugal matchup due to a 1997 “Simpsons” episode that depicted the teams, despite no explicit World Cup prediction. Bickerdike confirmed, “We’ve seen a notable liability on that game.”
