In Paris, following one of the most dramatic French Opens in recent memory, the men’s draw has narrowed to a championship match on Sunday between Alexander Zverev and Flavio Cobolli, both ranked inside the top 10 and each chasing his first Grand Slam title.
The experience gap is considerable. The second‑seeded Zverev is contesting his fourth Grand Slam final, having reached the semifinals with a four‑set victory over Jakub Mensik on Friday. Cobolli, who entered the final via a walkover after Matteo Arnaldi withdrew late, had previously reached only one major quarterfinal.
Cobolli arrives fresh after a three‑and‑a‑half‑day break, whereas Zverev has been pursuing this opportunity for several years.
Here is an analysis of how each player can secure victory and a look at who may emerge triumphant.
Why Zverev will win
This is his moment. The German is contesting his fourth Grand Slam final, and aside from a narrow loss to Dominic Thiem in the 2020 US Open, he has performed strongly in his other finals.
He has also felt doubt after a straight‑sets loss to Jannik Sinner in the Australian Open final last year, yet he now stands as the sole major contender remaining.
Zverev has surrendered only two sets en route to the final and has performed consistently over the past two weeks. While his second serve was once a vulnerability, it is now a strength, having won 66 % of points on that shot—the third‑best tally in the tournament. He ranks third for points won on serve +1, finishing points with his first shot after serving, and has handled every challenge, defeating the emerging Spanish talent Rafael Jodor in the quarterfinals and Mensik in the semifinals.
With Carlos Alcaraz absent and Sinner and Novak Djokovic eliminated in the second and third rounds, Zverev has conserved energy, advancing directly to his fourth Grand Slam final.
This represents his most significant opportunity to claim a major title, and he is determined not to let it slip away.
Why Cobolli will win
His freshness and clay‑court expertise give him a strong advantage.
Cobolli has lost only two sets on his path to his first final. After reaching the Hamburg final and defeating Zverev in the semifinals, he enters the championship with confidence.
Although he fell to Zverev in Madrid, the three‑day rest before the final should benefit him. Clay‑court matches are physically demanding, yet he has avoided prolonged contests, meaning he arrives at the final feeling revitalized.
While Jannik Sinner’s accomplishments have eclipsed other Italian players in recent years, Cobolli’s resilient performance against Felix Auger‑Aliassime—recovering from a set and a break down—suggests a strong showing.
Two of his three ATP titles have been won on clay, and having defeated Zverev, Cobolli enters his first Grand Slam final with a confidence boost that should temper his nerves.
The home crowd is expected to back him, and as the underdog, Cobolli will feel the pressure is on Zverev; his variety, persistence and court craft give him a realistic chance to win.
Who will win?
The outcome hinges on how Zverev copes with the moment; after losing three Slam finals, he recognizes this may be his best chance, which adds its own pressure.
Zverev, a veteran of multiple deep runs, now faces an opponent without prior Slam final experience, and his composed demeanor suggests he will manage the stress. He holds a 3‑1 edge in their head‑to‑head record, although this year’s two meetings on clay are tied 1‑1.
Cobolli, a top‑10 player with a strong clay‑court pedigree, understands the nuances of the surface and knows how to push opponents into uncomfortable positions.
If wind conditions arise, they could favor the Italian, as Zverev’s high toss may be hampered while Cobolli does not depend on power, potentially extending the match.
