A shopper browses near ‘Sale’ signs in the meats section of a grocery store. According to a new Guardian poll, 95 percent of Americans think that the United States is in the midst of an affordability crisis with many reporting trouble affording necessities like gas and groceries.
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Millions of Social Security beneficiaries could receive a larger-than-average cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) in 2027, according to expert projections.
The Social Security Administration is expected to announce the 2027 COLA on Wednesday alongside the release of new government inflation data. Analysts estimate the adjustment will raise benefits by 3.5% to 3.6%, marking the largest increase in three years.
Even with an above-average boost, many beneficiaries say the increase will not cover rising everyday expenses.
Roughly 76% of adults aged 50 and older said a projected 3.5% COLA for 2027 would be insufficient, according to an AARP survey released Monday. The poll of 1,023 adults ages 50-plus was conducted between September 17 and 21, with a margin of error of 4.25%.
“I would love it if the cost-of-living increase was more generous,” said Donna Dalrymple, a 70-year-old retiree in Manchester, New Hampshire.
Dalrymple retired at 65 following a cancer diagnosis, prompting her to claim Social Security benefits and begin 401(k) withdrawals five years earlier than planned. Today, she worries that rising costs—particularly Medicare premiums—will outpace the annual benefit increase.
Cost-of-living adjustments have averaged about 3.1% over the past decade, according to the Social Security Administration.
In September, estimates indicated the 2027 COLA could be the highest since 2023. The Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan senior advocacy group, and Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst, both forecast a 3.5% increase. AARP projects a slightly higher 3.6% adjustment.
The last time beneficiaries saw a larger increase was in 2023, when the COLA jumped to 8.7%—the highest in four decades—driven by soaring inflation. In 2022, benefits rose 5.9% as inflation began to climb. For 2026, beneficiaries received a 2.8% boost.
A 3.5% COLA for 2027 would increase the average benefit check by $67.90 per month—to roughly $2,008 from $1,940—according to the Senior Citizens League.
How the Final COLA May Differ From Estimates
AARP’s recent survey found that seven in ten adults aged 50-plus said an increase between 5% and 8% would be necessary to keep pace with daily living costs.
The official COLA announcement expected Wednesday may differ from September’s estimates because it will incorporate an additional month of inflation data.
A “very stiff jump in inflation” could push the COLA to 3.6%, Johnson said. Conversely, if inflation comes in lower than expected, the adjustment may settle at 3.4%.
Social Security’s cost-of-living adjustment is automatically applied to benefits to help them keep pace with inflation.
Since 1975, COLAs have been calculated annually for both Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits. In years with little to no inflation, adjustments have been zero.
“People are very, very grateful for it, and they look forward to it,” Social Security Administration Commissioner Frank Bisignano said Monday of the upcoming COLA announcement during an interview with CNBC’s Squawk on the Street.
How Medicare Costs May Erode the COLA
Rising Medicare costs in 2027 may limit the net gain Social Security beneficiaries see in their monthly checks.
Standard monthly premiums for Medicare Part B—typically deducted automatically from Social Security checks—are projected to reach $209.50 in 2027, up from $202.90 in 2026. Medicare Part B covers medically necessary and preventive services. Some beneficiaries pay additional surcharges, known as Income-Related Monthly Adjustment Amounts, if their incomes exceed certain thresholds.
Meanwhile, Medicare Part D prescription drug plans may see modest premium increases in 2027, according to an analysis by KFF, a nonpartisan health policy research group. Part D premiums may also be deducted directly from Social Security checks.
The Trump administration recently announced it is sending one-time $90 direct payments to more than 20 million Medicare Part B enrollees to help cover monthly premium costs.
Dalrymple, the New Hampshire retiree, said she does not believe she qualifies for the one-time payment, which excludes millions of Part B beneficiaries through specific eligibility criteria. She said she remains concerned about rising Medicare costs for 2027.
“If Medicare cost eats up the cost of living [adjustment], I’m really going to get slammed by the affordability crisis because rents are going up, groceries are going up, gas is going up,” Dalrymple said.
Some Democrats, including Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), ranking member of the Senate Finance Committee, have questioned the timing of the $90 payments just months ahead of the midterm elections. President Donald Trump has separately suggested the government would send $5,000 to every U.S. adult citizen if Republicans retain control of the House and Senate.
Bisignano told CNBC on Monday that the one-time payments exemplify the Trump administration “taking care of Americans” and working to keep vulnerable individuals, including the elderly, out of poverty.
Kathy Callaghan, 80, of Montpelier, Vermont, said she would have preferred the funds be directed to the Medicare trust fund—which is projected to exhaust its Part A reserves by 2033—rather than distributed via checks. Callaghan said she plans to donate her $90 payment to the Senate campaign of James Talarico, a Democrat and Texas state representative running for the U.S. Senate.
