Global Cocoa Futures Dip as Ivory Coast Shipment Surge Offsets Supply Shortfalls Elsewhere

December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ26) concluded Tuesday at -$200 (-2.95%), while December ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ26) ended at -$42 (-0.86%). Prices retreated from recent highs, with London cocoa shedding gains earlier this week following reporting of increased shipments from the Ivory Coast.

The Ivory Coast, the world’s leading cocoa producer, reported farmers delivered 2.14 million metric tons (MMT) to ports during the current marketing year (October 1, 2025, to August 30, 2026), marking a 19% increase compared to the same period in the prior year. This surge in supply contributed to downward pressure on futures markets.

The Ivory Coast’s cocoa regulator, Le Conseil du Café Cacao, announced plans to expand processing capacity to 1.3 million tons in the 2026/27 season, up from 650,000 tons currently. This development could further ease supply constraints in the region.

Market movements in London were tempered by fluctuations in the British pound (^GBPUSD), which fell to a two-week low against the dollar. A weaker pound enhances the value of sterling-denominated cocoa contracts, providing indirect support to prices.

ICE cocoa inventories reached a two-year peak of 3,411,776 bags as of Tuesday, reflecting ample market supplies. This build-up in stockpiles contributed to bearish sentiment among traders.

Prior-week price gains were driven by concerns over the quality of West African cocoa harvests, particularly due to cloudy weather and limited sunlight in the Ivory Coast and Ghana. These conditions have fostered the spread of black pod disease, which degrades bean quality. Simultaneously, fears of reduced output from Ghana—the second-largest cocoa producer—provided upward pressure. The Ghana Cocoa Board estimated the 2026/27 crop at 650,000 tons, a 13% decline from the previous year’s projection.

Early crop assessments for the Ivory Coast’s 2026/27 season indicate below-average cherry development, signaling a weak harvest outlook. Preliminary estimates project 1.8 MMT of output, an 18% drop from the 2025/26 season’s projected 2.2 MMT.

Positive factors for prices include revised global surplus forecasts. StoneX reduced its 2026/27 global cocoa surplus estimate to 25,000 tons in July, down from 149,000 tons in April, citing El Niño-related risks in West Africa. Transgraph Consulting similarly projected a surplus contraction to 80,000 tons for 2026–2027, with global production expected to decline to 4.87 MMT from 5.11 MMT in the prior season.

Despite these challenges, Ghana has maintained strong current-season output, harvesting 750,000 tons for the 2025/26 marketing year—a 25.6% increase over 2024/25 levels. However, the Ghana Cocoa Board warned of potential declines in the 2026/27 season due to swollen shoot disease, aging plantations, and El Niño impacts, projecting yields between 450,000 and 550,000 tons.

Medium-term cocoa prices may find support from weather-related uncertainties. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center noted in July that the emerging El Niño event could rank among the strongest in over 75 years, potentially bringing drier, warmer conditions to West Africa and stressing cocoa trees.

Current cocoa supplies remain adequate, exemplified by Nigeria’s July exports rising 18% year-over-year to 16,052 tons, according to Bloomberg. Nigeria ranks as the world’s fifth-largest cocoa producer.

Demand conditions in key regions showed mixed results. The European Cocoa Association reported a 4.6% decline in Q2 European cocoa grindings to 316,366 tons, the lowest in six years and surpassing the expected 1.5% drop. Conversely, North American cocoa grindings rose 7.7% year-over-year to 109,659 tons, exceeding forecasts of a 1% decline. Asian grindings also improved, increasing 25% to 224,646 tons, well above the projected 9% growth.

On the date of publication,

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