EU Presses Ahead with Enlargement Strategy Post-Iceland Vote

EU officials are leveraging a high-level meeting in Ireland to shift focus from Iceland’s recent referendum, aiming to maintain momentum for the bloc’s enlargement strategy.

European affairs ministers from EU member states and candidate nations are convening in Dublin for an informal summit under Ireland’s EU Council presidency, where enlargement processes will be a key topic.

In a recent referendum, Icelandic citizens narrowly voted against resuming EU accession talks, which have been stalled since 2013, with 52.8% opposing and 47.2% in favor. This outcome deals a setback to the EU’s expansion plans, especially concerning its more affluent neighbors.

When asked if the result indicated reduced attractiveness of the EU, Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos disagreed, highlighting that more progress has been achieved in integrating new members over the past eight months than in the previous 25 years.

“This dynamic will continue into the autumn,” Kos stated. “I regret the Icelandic decision not to rejoin the accession process. While they are part of the common market and Schengen Area, our Union encompasses far more than these elements.”

“I observe a tendency to reduce the European Union to a mere economic community, which is far from its core essence,” she added, emphasizing the need for unity against escalating security threats from Russia.

Kos noted that it remains Iceland’s choice whether to pursue membership later, but recalled that during 2010 negotiations, only 19% supported joining, compared to the 47% who voted affirmatively in the latest referendum.

“The Icelandic people have spoken. Their decision is final,” said Ireland’s Minister of State for European Affairs and Defence, Thomas Byrne. “This does not affect our current efforts, and candidate countries are actively advancing their accession processes.”

Keeping up momentum

Speaking to reporters at the ministerial meeting, Byrne minimized the impact of Iceland’s vote on other candidates, pointing to advancements with Montenegro, Albania, Moldova, and Ukraine.

The Irish minister explained that Iceland’s situation is uniquely tied to its maritime fishing industry, and confirmed the country will remain part of the European Economic Area.

Meanwhile, the EU is striving to sustain enlargement momentum. Montenegro is on track to become the 28th member by 2028, with Albania close behind, and Ukraine and Moldova having already opened two accession clusters this year.

When questioned about potential risks from upcoming elections in member states like France, Italy, Spain, and Poland in 2027, Byrne dismissed concerns, stating, “Elections are unpredictable, and we should not overinterpret current opinion polls.”

France’s far-right National Rally candidate, Marine Le Pen, is projected to lead in all second-round scenarios according to polls. As a known Eurosceptic, she historically opposes EU enlargement.

Democratic safeguards

The European Commission is preparing a proposal for reforming an expanded Union and better integrating candidates, set for release by month-end and discussion at the EU leaders’ summit on October 15-16.

The Dublin meeting will also address potential safeguards to prevent democratic and rule-of-law backsliding in new members, an initiative proposed by five founding nations learning from Hungary’s experiences under Viktor Orbán.

“Since the 2004 enlargement, we cannot assume new members will always uphold the rule of law and sincere cooperation,” Commissioner Kos remarked.

The enlargement chief clarified that these safeguards are not intended to create a second-tier membership, emphasizing their temporary nature.

Petar Marković, Montenegro’s head of mission to the EU, expressed support for stronger safeguards, provided they are based on objective criteria for evaluating systematic breaches of democratic standards.

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