AUD/USD Outlook: Consolidation at 0.7200 Precedes Potential Upside Breakout

The AUD/USD pair holds steady near the 0.7200 level to start the new week, maintaining its proximity to the highest levels seen since mid-May last Friday.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to draw support from growing expectations of a September rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), driven by robust economic growth and persistent domestic inflation. Conversely, the US Dollar (USD) struggles to extend gains from last week’s upbeat Nonfarm Payrolls report as traders await key US inflation data due later this week. Meanwhile, rising geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran provide a tailwind for the Greenback, limiting further upside in the AUD/USD pair.

Spot prices have successfully held above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-June decline, building on the recent sharp rebound from the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This technical setup suggests that the path of least resistance for the AUD/USD pair remains tilted to the upside. Furthermore, a sturdy Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 66 and a mildly positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram indicate that buyers retain control, although conditions are nearing overbought territory.

Looking ahead, a multi-year peak at 0.7272 stands as the next major resistance level; a daily close above this barrier could pave the way for further upward momentum. On the downside, immediate support is located at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7186. A break below this level would signal a weakening of the upward momentum, potentially sending the pair lower toward the 61.8% retracement at 0.7118 and the 50% level near 0.7070, with deeper support at 0.7023 and the rising 200-day SMA at 0.6989.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Learn more.)

AUD/USD daily chart

Australian Dollar Price Last 30 days

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies last 30 days. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.74%-0.39%-1.45%-1.24%-2.32%0.04%-0.22%EUR0.74%0.34%-0.71%-0.52%-1.60%0.78%0.54%GBP0.39%-0.34%-1.08%-0.86%-1.93%0.45%0.19%JPY1.45%0.71%1.08%0.21%-0.90%1.55%1.23%CAD1.24%0.52%0.86%-0.21%-1.11%1.30%1.04%AUD2.32%1.60%1.93%0.90%1.11%2.41%2.15%NZD-0.04%-0.78%-0.45%-1.55%-1.30%-2.41%-0.24%CHF0.22%-0.54%-0.19%-1.23%-1.04%-2.15%0.24%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

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