Projecting Nvidia’s Stock Trajectory Over the Next Five Years

Key Points

• Nvidia’s shares have risen sharply in recent years, fueled by the AI boom, and further growth remains possible.

• Increasing investment in AI infrastructure will continue to benefit the company.

• Nvidia’s robust earnings growth outlook and attractive valuation suggest its rally is not over.

The AI-driven rally in Nvidia’s shares (NVDA) has propelled it to become the world’s most valuable company, with a market capitalization exceeding $5 trillion.

This milestone comes after the stock climbed nearly tenfold in the last five years. Investors now question whether another tenfold increase is possible over the next half‑decade, considering the company’s already massive valuation.

Missed AI’s “Act 1”? Act 2 Could Be 15x Bigger. Many investors feel they missed the AI wave by not buying Nvidia in 2005, but analysts say we are still at the close of “Act 1″—the research and development stage. ‘Act 2’ represents the worldwide deployment.

We will examine Nvidia’s outlook and estimate the potential upside for investors in this AI stock over the next five years.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

Is Another Tenfold Gain for Nvidia Feasible?

A tenfold increase in Nvidia’s stock price over the next five years would push its market value to around $50 trillion. Meanwhile, global GDP is projected to reach approximately $150 trillion by 2030, up from about $125 trillion today, according to Visual Capitalist.

Such a surge would give Nvidia roughly one‑third of global GDP by 2030, compared with its current share of about 4%. While that scenario appears improbable, the company still has ample growth runway and trades at a reasonable valuation, making solid returns plausible.

For example, AI infrastructure investment continues to rise. Nvidia notes that the top five hyperscalers are set to spend about $800 billion on capital expenditures this year, a figure that could climb to $1.3 trillion by 2027. Notably, annual data center spending may surpass $3 trillion by 2030, according to Dell’Oro.

The firm estimates that roughly one‑third of that spending—about $1 trillion—will be directed toward AI accelerators. Additional networking hardware to link these accelerators will expand the addressable market. Nvidia dominates the AI accelerator space with an approximate 80% share and is expanding into related high‑growth areas such as server processors.

Given this outlook, it is reasonable to expect Nvidia to retain its lead in AI accelerators over the next five years. If it maintains its current share, AI accelerator revenue alone could approach $800 billion (based on the $1 trillion estimate). That would represent a substantial increase over Nvidia’s projected 2026 data‑center revenue of $194 billion. Moreover, because Nvidia’s data‑center segment also includes networking sales, its total addressable market could be even larger.

Nvidia Still Has Multibagger Potential

Nvidia’s earnings per share could grow at an annual rate of around 52% over the long term.

Data by YCharts

This estimate has risen markedly this year. Assuming Nvidia achieves 52% yearly earnings growth for the next five years, earnings per share could climb to about $75.54, using the projected 2027 EPS of $9.31 as a starting point.

If the stock trades at 21 times earnings in five years—consistent with the forward P/E of the S&P 500—the share price could reach roughly $1,586, which is about 7.5 times today’s level.

Although this projection may seem ambitious, it underscores Nvidia’s capacity for significant gains over the next five years, even if the stock falls short of a seven‑fold increase. At a forward P/E of just 24, the shares remain an attractive investment.

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