OSLO — U.S. President Donald Trump is not expected to receive this year’s Nobel Peace Prize, yet his presence will weigh heavily on the committee tasked with choosing the laureate, according to leading experts.
Last year’s award to Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado marked a unique moment in the prize’s 125-year history. The decision followed repeated lobbying by Trump for the honor. Weeks after the announcement, Machado presented her gold Nobel medal to Trump in an effort to secure support for her campaign to restore democracy in Venezuela.
This year, the five-member Norwegian Nobel Committee will likely be mindful of selecting a recipient capable of withstanding pressure from the former president, says Haakon Gjerløw, acting director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO).
“I think last year’s events surrounding the Nobel Peace Prize — specifically María Corina Machado giving it to Trump afterwards — will factor into the committee’s deliberations,” Gjerløw told Reuters.
“One concern the committee might have is whether awarding the prize to a particular individual could expose them to pressure from Donald Trump. I believe the committee will weigh whether the award might do more harm than good.”
That calculation could steer the prize toward figures such as Pope Leo XIV, the International Criminal Court (ICC), the International Court of Justice (ICJ), or Francesca Albanese, the UN Special Rapporteur on the Occupied Palestinian Territories, analysts suggest. The winner will be announced on October 9.
Leo, the first U.S.-born pontiff, has vowed to continue speaking out against war after Trump labeled him “weak” for criticizing the U.S. confrontation with Iran. The Pope’s encyclical on artificial intelligence, his advocacy for dialogue and peaceful conflict resolution, his defense of migrants’ rights, and his humanitarian efforts are cited as potential grounds for recognition.
“The Pope represents more than just a religious figure; he has emerged as a leading global thought leader,” Karim Haggag, director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), told Reuters.
Albanese, meanwhile, has faced intense criticism from the U.S. and Israel for her condemnation of Israel’s conduct in the war against Hamas in Gaza and the occupation of the West Bank.
A SAFE CHOICE INSTEAD?
Conversely, last year’s controversy could prompt the committee to opt for a safer, less controversial laureate unlikely to antagonize Trump — who previously blamed Norway for denying him the accolade.
Such a scenario might favor Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, a network of community groups delivering aid amid civil war, or the non-governmental organization Save the Children for its work protecting children in conflict zones.
However, the committee also faces scrutiny to confront Trump’s challenges to the international order it traditionally upholds, notes Øivind Stenersen, a historian specializing in the Nobel Peace Prize.
“They are under a certain pressure to stand firm against Trump,” Stenersen told Reuters. “Given the gravity of the current international situation, this year demands a Peace Prize that defends liberal democracy, international law, and human rights.”
This imperative could lead to honoring the ICC at a time when Washington is reportedly preparing sweeping sanctions against the tribunal, according to sources. An award to the ICJ would similarly underscore the importance of respecting state sovereignty and resolving disputes peacefully.
Trump has reportedly been nominated by the leaders of Cambodia, Israel, and Pakistan, though his prospects are assessed as “quite low,” according to Gjerløw.
The former president’s pressure campaign on the Norwegian Nobel Committee has stunned observers, including Nobel Peace Prize laureate Maria Ressa. The Filipino-American journalist said she watched last year’s events with “horror.”
“Bullies don’t run the world,” Ressa told Reuters during a visit to Oslo in September. “There are standards we live by. Might doesn’t make it right.”
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