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The Las Vegas Aces have won three of the past four championships and are making their eighth consecutive semifinal appearance. The Atlanta Dream have been swept in all three of their WNBA Finals trips and haven’t reached the semifinals since 2018.
Two already established all‑time greats—Las Vegas’ A’ja Wilson and New York’s Breanna Stewart—each possess three WNBA titles. Golden State and Atlanta lack a Mount Rushmore‑level legend, yet they hold the higher seeds and benefit from home‑court advantage in these best‑of‑five series.
The Dream host the Liberty in Game 1 on Sunday (2 p.m. ET, ABC), followed by the Valkyries visiting the Aces (4 p.m. ET). ESPN’s Kendra Andrews, Kareem Copeland, Alexa Philippou, and Michael Voepel provide deep analysis of the rivalry.
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Golden State‑Las Vegas | Atlanta‑New York
Regular‑Season Series
Las Vegas went 3‑0 against Golden State.
- May 31: Aces 91, Valkyries 81 (at Las Vegas)
- June 6: Aces 84, Valkyries 79 (at Golden State)
- June 21: Aces 92, Valkyries 73 (at Golden State)
BPI: Golden State holds a 64.9 % chance to reach the WNBA Finals, 41.7 % to win the title; Las Vegas sits at 35.1 % for the Finals and 18.3 % for the championship.
First‑Round Recap
Both teams went the distance in the opening round, with thrilling Game 3 triumphs. A’ja Wilson dominated individually across the series, leading the Aces to three straight victories and establishing her as a strong candidate for Finals MVP.
While Golden State’s defense slowed down Russell Western Wilson—who averages 32 ppg in the playoffs—the Valkyries countered via Gabby Williams, who posted 25 points, 4.3 assists, 4.3 rebounds, and 2.3 steals in Game 3 (—Copeland).
The matchup centers on a classic offense‑versus‑defense dynamic. The Aces rank second in offensive efficiency league‑wide, whereas the Valkyries boast elite defensive capabilities. Superstar‑heavy roster clashes with a roster featuring few former All‑Star appearances. The franchise built on dynastic moments—three consecutive WNBA championships—in contrast to the newly formed Valkyries, whose first‑round journey included only narrow losses.
How They Match Up
Offense meets defense in this series. The Aces finished the season as the league’s second‑best offensive unit, while the Valkyries have consistently epitomized defensive solidity. Golden State’s triple‑threats of A’ja Wilson (32 ppg), Jackie Young (23.2 ppg per game) and Chelsea Gray (15.6 ppg) provide relentless scoring, whereas Golden State’s big‑three remain formidable. To upset Los Angeles, the Valkyries must limit the Aces’ multiple contributors and spark their own offensively. Home‑court advantage also proves crucial; Golden State enjoy the best record at Chase Center, while Golden State’s home court lifts the Valkyries, especially given the stakes of extending a series.
“If they can slow Washington’s large three, they’ll force the Aces to fight on energy,” said Kareem Copeland. “Conversely, San Francisco needs to contain Wilson and inspire its teammates.”
Figure 1 – Video preview (A’ja Wilson dominates): <figure data-video=”watch,640,360,50082076,whitelist-PR|HN|PY|HT|AG|ZA|AI|AM|AO|AR|AS|ZM|RE|AU|AW|ZW|BB|JM|BF|RW|BI|BJ|BM|BO|BQ|SC|BR|BS|BW|BZ|SL|KE|SN|SR|SS|CD|ST|KM|KN|SV|CF|CG|SX|CI|SZ|CL|CM|CO|KY|TC|CR|CU|CV|TG|LC|TT|LR|TZ|LS|DO|UG|UK|UM|MF|MG|EC|US|ML|MP|UY|MQ|MS|MU|MW|MX|ER|VC|MZ|ET|VE|VG|NA|VI|NE|NG|NI|NZ|GA|GB|GD|GF|GH|GM|GN|GP|GQ|GT|GU|GW|PA|GY|PE”” data-cerebro-id=”6abf27d8e549cf3f2ada9f97″ data-title=”A’ja Wilson drops 36 points to lead the Aces past the Fever” class=”media-wrapper_image video” data-source=”espn” data-contributing-partner=”wsc”> 1:14
A’ja Wilson drops 36 points to lead the Aces past the Fever
“What will most impact the series”
The home‑court edge can offset Golden State’s superior overall record at Chase Center. While the Valkyries’ve benefited from the arena’s intimidation factor, beating the Aces becomes more daunting when extended. New York executed that feat recently, defeating the Aces in the semifinals and ultimately capturing the championship.
Golden State’s strong home performance may lift the Valkyries further; they capitalized on such advantages in previous rounds, including a decisive Game 3 victory. Conversely, navigating a long home stand presents challenges for Denver, though the element of securing a Game 5 adds an extra layer of difficulty.
Michael Voepel adds his perspective: “For the Valkyries, protecting Wilson while slowing Wilson’s best companions is key. Their blend of athleticism and cohesion gives them staying power.”
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Key Match‑Up Conditions
• **Las Vegas** win if they can limit the Aces’ multiple scorers and find their own rhythm.
• **Atlanta** win if the Valkyries’ defense tightens and exploit the Aces’ perimeter spacing.
Regular‑season series: Atlanta 2‑1 New York (win), New York 2‑1 Atlanta (loss), New York 1‑2 Atlanta (final standings).
Analysts highlight the strategic battle: Atlanta leverages the depth of Allen‑Reese (guard duality) and Jahid Canada’s speed, while New York relies on veteran savvy from Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones. Experience often translates to composure in high‑stakes moments.
Final predictions (as compiled by reporters):