AI‑Driven Extreme‑Weather Forecasts Hit Funding Hurdles

Lost Science is an ongoing series of accounts from scientists who have lost their jobs or funding after cuts by the Trump administration. The conversations have been edited for clarity and length. Here’s why we’re doing this.

Amy McGovern: I like to tell people I was doing AI before it was cool. But really, I always knew I wanted to use artificial intelligence to make a difference in the real world.

When I moved to Oklahoma in 2005 and became a professor, I began exploring how AI could improve weather forecasts, particularly for extreme events such as hurricanes, heat waves, and snowstorms.

The challenge goes beyond deciding whether to bring an umbrella today. It involves making high‑stakes decisions about evacuations within minutes, where uncertainty is greatest.

AI is well suited to this problem because vast amounts of weather data are available, and AI excels at detecting patterns and linking disparate models in ways humans cannot easily see.

Over the past two decades, AI has moved from research to informing forecasts used by government agencies, private companies, and consumers’ smartphones.

In 2019, I and my collaborators secured a $20 million National Science Foundation grant to establish an AI institute dedicated to weather forecasting. The funding supported 24 faculty, 35 researchers, 46 graduate students, and 83 undergraduates—work that would be impossible with smaller grants.

We were able to predict cold snaps on South Texas ocean waters with enough lead time for sea‑turtle rescues, extend hail warnings from 15 to 60 minutes, and enable meteorologists to update hurricane intensity every five minutes instead of a few times daily.

However, last summer we learned that our funding would not be renewed.

The U.S. Office of Management and Budget characterized our program as “wasting taxpayer funds with climate change hysteria.” Though the institute’s official title, chosen by the National Science Foundation, included the word “climate,” our focus was on extreme weather—a distinct area from climate change.

We are now seeking alternative grants, but the funding landscape remains difficult. Without continued support, progress in AI‑driven extreme‑weather forecasting could stall.

Amy McGovern is a professor in the School of Meteorology and the School of Computer Science at the University of Oklahoma.

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