Cocoa Prices Advance into the Weekend

ICE New York cocoa (CCN26) closed Friday at 69 points higher (+1.86%), while ICE London cocoa #7 (CAN26) rose 7 points (+0.24%).

Cocoa prices rose as short covering resumed ahead of the weekend, after New York coffee fell to a three‑week low on Thursday and London coffee touched a similar low on Friday before bouncing back.

Earlier in the week cocoa prices weakened amid abundant supply, following the Ivory Coast’s revision upward of its port receipt estimate by more than 260,000 metric tonnes for the season. Cumulative data show that 1.95 million metric tonnes of cocoa were shipped to ports during the current marketing year (Oct 1 2025–June 7 2026), an 18.9% increase from the same period a year earlier. The country also projected a 10.8% year‑over‑year decline in 2025/26 production, to 1.65 MMT from 1.85 MMT in 2024/25.

Higher inventories weigh on prices; ICE cocoa stocks climbed to a 1.75‑year high of 2,929,074 bags last Friday, settling at 2,917,793 bags on the subsequent trading day.

Medium‑term support for cocoa prices stems from weather concerns; Japan’s Meteorological Agency confirmed an El Niño event in the equatorial Pacific, which could bring hotter, drier conditions to West Africa and threaten cocoa output. NOAA estimates a 67% probability of a “Super El Niño” this year, among the most intense on record.

Early surveys of the 2026/27 West African cocoa crop indicate below‑average cherelle development, suggesting a weak outlook for the main harvest that starts in October.

The prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global cocoa supply chains and is supporting prices; reduced fertilizer availability has raised shipping, insurance and fuel costs, increasing importers’ expenses.

Weak global demand is pressuring prices. The National Confectioners Association reported a 3.8% year‑over‑year decline in North American Q1 cocoa grindings to 106,087 metric tonnes. The European Cocoa Association noted a 7.8% year‑over‑year drop in European Q1 grindings to 325,895 metric tonnes, the steepest decline since 2008 and below forecasts of 6%. Meanwhile, the Cocoa Association of Asia reported a surprising 5.2% year‑over‑year increase in Asian Q1 grindings to 223,503 metric tonnes, contrary to expectations of a 6.7% decline.

Reduced supplies from Nigeria, the world’s fifth‑largest cocoa producer, bolster prices. Bloomberg reported a 20% year‑over‑year decline in Nigerian cocoa exports to 14,921 metric tonnes in April. The Nigerian Cocoa Association forecasts a 11% year‑over‑year decline in 2025/26 production to 305,000 metric tonnes, down from a projected 344,000 metric tonnes for 2024/25.

In February Ghana reduced the official farmgate price for cocoa by nearly 30% for the 2025/26 season. In March the Ivory Coast announced a 57% cut in farmer payments, effective for the mid‑crop harvest commencing in March. Together, the two countries account for over half of global cocoa production.

A tighter global surplus is bullish for cocoa prices. StoneX revised its 2026/27 global surplus outlook down to 149,000 metric tonnes, from a January forecast of 267,000 metric tonnes, citing West African crop risks linked to the anticipated El Niño. It also lowered its 2025/26 surplus estimate to 247,000 metric tonnes, down from 287,000 metric tonnes.

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