Ivan Cepeda’s Uphill Bid to Overtake Colombia’s Runoff Favorite

A difficult path to the runoff

Cepeda has so far given few specifics on how he would adjust the current strategy if elected president.

Since the first round of voting, however, he has tried to soften his platform and separate himself from Gustavo Petro, hoping to appeal to centrist and undecided voters. He has also become more openly critical of the “Total Peace” plan.

In a recent interview with Caracol Radio, Cepeda said that, as president, he would refuse to negotiate with armed groups that attack civilians and social leaders.

“The [Total Peace] policy has had shortcomings, miscalculations and errors, and it will have to be reassessed,” Cepeda said.

He has also stepped back from a controversial proposal to rewrite Colombia’s constitution to advance social reforms, an initiative Petro has pushed since 2024.

Yet Cepeda’s recalibration has so far won him limited backing from centrist politicians.

Claudia Lopez, a centrist candidate who placed fifth in the first round, has publicly endorsed him, but her running mate said he would support de la Espriella in the runoff. Sergio Fajardo, another centrist candidate who finished third, has declined to endorse either contender.

“It has been difficult for Cepeda because [the shift in his platform] has put him somewhat at odds with President Petro’s rhetoric and positions, which dominated the first-round campaign,” said Basset.

Cepeda’s sudden pivot may have come “too late to seem credible,” he added.

Basset also said Cepeda’s camp made little effort before the first round to court centrist politicians who had criticized Petro’s presidency.

As a result, his options for expanding support are now limited, with centrists cautious about joining his campaign.

“There have been political differences over whether to build coalitions with other political forces,” Basset said. “Cepeda inherits Petro’s political base, but that base alone is insufficient to win an election, and I think the left realised that too late.”

According to the political analyst, de la Espriella enters Sunday’s runoff with the advantage after successfully bringing much of the political right behind his candidacy.

Paloma Valencia, a right-wing candidate who finished third in the first round, has publicly endorsed de la Espriella, and her supporters are expected to shift their support to him.

But Basset said Cepeda should not be counted out. Although the left-wing candidate trails de la Espriella in the latest polls, he could benefit from higher turnout in urban neighborhoods and rural areas where the left remains strongest.

“Cepeda’s advantage may lie in the fact that the left has a more effective grassroots organisation than Abelardo de la Espriella has,” Basset said.

“That means he could still reverse the current trend, but it will not be easy.”

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