PHILADELPHIA (AP) — The expanded playoff structure has made it far more difficult to forecast whether Tarik Skubal and other elite talents will be moved before the Aug. 3 trade deadline.
Twenty-three of the 30 Major League Baseball teams enter the second half of the season within four games of a postseason spot. The stretch run begins Thursday with the resurgent Philadelphia Phillies hosting the struggling New York Mets.
“You’ve got a lot of really good teams that were on the bubble that have gotten in and kind of made it,” Phillies first baseman Bryce Harper said. “Anybody that has an opportunity to get in, anything can happen and that’s what makes our sport great.”
Skubal, a two-time Cy Young Award winner eligible for free agency after the World Series, stands as the most notable potential trade candidate. The 29-year-old left-hander is 2-3 with a 3.62 ERA in six starts for the Detroit Tigers following May 6 surgery to remove a loose body from his pitching elbow.
He returned to the major leagues on June 13 after Dr. Neal ElAttrache performed the operation using a NanoNeedle scope 2.0, a miniaturized, flexible alternative to the standard arthroscope.
Detroit opened June at 22-38 — matching the 1914 Braves as the most games under .500 for a team that later reached the postseason, per the Elias Sports Bureau. The Tigers have since gone 22-14 and sit 3 1/2 games behind the final American League wild-card slot, needing to pass six clubs. Their results over the 16 games before the deadline will shape whether they buy or sell.
Minnesota’s Joe Ryan and Milwaukee’s Freddy Peralta could also be available. The Mets may move left-handed relievers Brooks Raley and A.J. Minter to contenders, while San Francisco could look to deal second baseman Luis Arraez.
The only division leads exceeding three games belong to the Los Angeles Dodgers (11 1/2) and Milwaukee (five).
“There are some middling teams that are potentially going to finish stronger and some teams that are front-running right now that might fall back to the pack,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said. “It’s what the fans wanted. It keeps everyone involved through September, as many teams as possible.”
Just seven of the 30 teams are more than four games out of a wild-card berth: the Athletics (6 1/2), Cincinnati (eight), Kansas City and the Los Angeles Angels (10 each), the Giants (10 1/2), the Mets (12) and Colorado (13 1/2).
“I think having more teams involved and more fan bases feeling like there’s something to play for later in the season is always good,” said Toronto pitcher Dylan Cease, the All-Star Game winner.
Phillies rebound after Mattingly becomes manager
Philadelphia was 9-19 when Rob Thomson was dismissed on April 28 and replaced by Don Mattingly. The Phillies have gone 44-24 since and trail NL East-leading Atlanta (55-40) by two games.
Harper credits part of the turnaround to Zack Wheeler’s April 25 return from August thoracic outlet syndrome surgery. Wheeler is 10-1 with a 2.13 ERA.
“Once we got Wheels back, I think everybody kind of took a deep breath,” Harper said. “That helped a lot of our other starting pitching kind of just fall into place.”
Red Sox hottest team going into second half
Boston dismissed Alex Cora after a 10-17 start and is 36-31 under Chad Tracy, closing the first half with its first 9-0 road trip since 1977.
Despite a 46-48 record, the Red Sox are just a half-game out of the final wild card in an AL where only five teams have winning records.
“We’ve done a much better job overall with our approach,” Tracy said. “We’re taking more pitches. We’re seeing more pitches against starters. We are getting starters deep in counts earlier in games. We’re scoring runs in the first five innings of the game and letting our starting rotation pitch with a lead.”
If Boston falters in the coming weeks, closer Aroldis Chapman and starter Sonny Gray could be traded.
First-round byes at stake
Three of the four teams with first-round byes last year reached the League Championship Series: Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Seattle and Toronto. Among Wild Card Series survivors, only the Dodgers advanced past the Division Series.
The bye lets clubs reset rotations and open the Division Series with their top starters.
Yankees pitcher Cam Schlittler recalled New York losing the AL East crown and bye to Toronto on a tiebreaker last year.
“Every game matters,” he said.