KARACHI: The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) is poised for a cautious week. Analysts anticipate that the ongoing US‑Iran tensions and fluctuating oil prices will be the primary drivers of investor sentiment, coinciding with the forthcoming Monetary Policy Committee meeting. Robust corporate earnings reported for June 2026 are expected to provide some support.
AKD Research notes that the market remains attractively valued, with a price‑to‑earnings multiple of 7.8. The firm projects that the KSE‑100 Index could reach 263,800 points by December 2026. Its recommended stocks include OGDC, PPL, UBL, MEBL, HBL, FFC, ENGROH, PSO, LUCK, FCCL, INDU, ILP and SYS.
‘The KSE‑100 Index declined 2.7% week‑on‑week, as escalating US‑Iran tensions drove crude oil prices higher and dampened investor sentiment,’ the brokerage observed. Additionally, the government raised Rs729 billion in a T‑bill auction during the week, with yields increasing by 12 to 51 basis points across various tenors.
The benchmark index fell by 4,782 points, or 2.7%, closing at 171,021 points. Average daily trading volume declined 3.2% to 881.4 million shares. Topline Sales Desk reported a weekly average traded volume of 696 million shares, with a traded value of Rs28 billion.
During the week, the conflict intensified dramatically. Yemen’s Houthi rebels announced a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia and claimed attacks on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, heightening concerns about potential disruption at the Bab el‑Mandeb chokepoint and existing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. The United States conducted its 12th consecutive night of strikes on Iranian military targets. Brent crude climbed above $101 per barrel before moderating to $97, sustaining elevated concerns over energy imports and inflation.
Sentiment received a modest lift after S&P Global upgraded Pakistan’s long‑term sovereign credit rating to B with a stable outlook, citing macroeconomic stability and ongoing reforms. In the banking sector, deposits rose 15.2% year‑on‑year to Rs40.9 trillion in June 2026, according to AKD Research. Urea offtake increased 2.0% year‑on‑year to 592,000 tonnes, aided by improved farm economics, subsidies and cheaper financing. DAP sales declined 58% year‑on‑year, reflecting higher prices.
Other notable developments included Pakistan’s pursuit of a $10 billion bilateral exchange stabilisation facility from the United States, and the government’s proposal to amend the Brownfield Refining Policy 2023. Additionally, Pakistan procured a spot LNG cargo at $21.88 per mmbtu, the highest price since March 2026. The United States announced new tariffs ranging from 10% to 12% on 60 trading partners, with Pakistan subject to a 10% rate. The Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra) is set to commence daily petroleum price adjustments under a revised mechanism.
Refinery, insurance and textile‑spinning stocks led sector gains, posting increases of 5.5%, 2.5% and 1.1% respectively, as reported by AKD Research. In contrast, jute, sugar and related industries, as well as closed‑end mutual funds, lagged with declines of 10.9%, 8.0% and 6.6% respectively.
According to AKD Research, mutual funds and banks acted as net sellers, divesting $17.4 million and $13.6 million of equities respectively. Conversely, individual and foreign investors were net buyers, acquiring $15.3 million and $7.2 million worth of shares.
Among individual equities, YOUW was the top performer, gaining 8.9% for the week, followed by CNERYGY, PGLC, ATRL and NESTLE. SSGC headed the losers, declining 14.1%, with SNGP, KTML, MLCF and KOHC also posting losses.