The dollar regained traction in early Thursday trading, recouping part of Wednesday’s 0.6% decline following the Fed meeting, which had pushed the currency to its lowest level since July 20.
The Federal Reserve held rates steady in the 3.50%‑3.75% range, as anticipated, but policymakers displayed a split outlook, deepening uncertainty about the central bank’s next move.
Although the Fed reiterated its commitment to monitor developments and act accordingly, markets continue to price in a September rate hike — with a possible additional increase by year‑end — keeping the dollar supported.
The latest escalation in the Middle East, coupled with signals that the conflict could expand and involve more regional actors, is expected to keep inflation elevated. A prolonged oil‑supply disruption could trigger a domino effect, adding further pressure on the Fed to tighten policy.
From this perspective, the sharp two‑day decline can be viewed as a healthy correction, even though the bullish trendline originating from the 97.40 base has been breached again, likely marking another false breakdown.
The daily chart technical picture remains predominantly bullish, suggesting the correction is still within bounds and positioning the market for a fresh upward push.
The ascending and thickening daily Ichimoku cloud continues to underpin near‑term price action, while momentum indicators hover in neutral to positive territory.
A break and close above the 20‑day moving average (100.83) is considered the minimum threshold to validate an initial positive signal, with a return above the bullish trendline (100.98, reinforced by the 10‑day DMA) needed to bring bulls back into play and shift focus toward recent peaks around 100.48‑100.55.
Larger‑scale buyers are expected to stay active as long as the price holds above the 100 support zone.
Res: 100.98; 101.48; 101.55; 102.00
Sup: 100.58; 100.22; 100.00; 99.48
