In December 2025, high-intensity Chinese military exercises around Taiwan included, for the first time, a simulated comprehensive air and naval blockade of the island. Weeks later, two U.S. naval vessels entered the Taiwan Strait to conduct the first declared transit of 2026.
While the mission offered reassurance to some regional partners, particularly Taipei, it marked the only publicly acknowledged U.S. Navy transit of the Taiwan Strait in 2026 so far, and one of only three since the outset of the second Trump administration. This represents a sharp reduction compared to previous years—an especially concerning trend as Chinese military pressure on Taiwan continues to escalate.
Analysis of U.S. naval transits through the Taiwan Strait—based on official statements from the U.S. and allied governments, media coverage, naval press reports, and databases such as the Taiwan Security Monitor—reveals 28 transits during the first Trump administration and 32 during the Biden administration. If current trends continue, projections indicate just 14 publicly reported transits for the entirety of “Trump 2.0,” representing a 50% decline from Trump’s first term and a 56% drop from the Biden era.
As American naval presence in one of the world’s most strategically sensitive waterways diminishes, the potential strategic consequences are significant. The Taiwan Strait remains a focal point of geopolitical tension due to competing territorial claims. China asserts sovereignty over the entire strait, a claim rejected by most of the international community, including the United States.
Naval transits serve as a critical mechanism for challenging unlawful maritime assertions by operating within disputed zones to contest unrecognized authority. These missions affirm the principle of freedom of navigation and demonstrate ongoing U.S. commitment to regional stability. Their importance has grown in recent years as Chinese military activity near Taiwan has intensified. Since 2022, following then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, Chinese air and naval incursions have become routine, with approximately five to six warships regularly encircling the island daily.
According to the Department of Defense’s 2025 China Military Report, China’s increasing militarization of the region—including frequent joint combat patrols and large-scale exercises during periods of heightened political tension—has reached unprecedented levels. Tactics such as severing undersea cables and conducting unauthorized inspections of Taiwanese vessels reflect Beijing’s incremental “salami-slicing” strategy designed to test regional resolve without triggering open conflict.
Despite these provocations, China has thus far avoided initiating a full-scale invasion of Taiwan, partly due to uncertainty regarding U.S. intervention. Maintaining visible naval presence helps sustain those deterrent calculations. For the U.S. Navy, transits also provide essential operational experience in navigating contested waters—a capability that risks erosion if activity declines further.
Some analysts argue that the strategic value of these transits is being overstated. Former Pentagon official Drew Thompson noted that Taiwan Strait transits represent only one component of U.S. military engagement and should be evaluated qualitatively rather than purely quantitatively.
However, given their symbolic weight and clarity of messaging, these missions carry outsized influence in affirming opposition to illegitimate maritime claims. After a joint U.S.-Canadian transit in October 2024, Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs praised the maneuver as “concrete actions to safeguard peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait,” underscoring how even modest demonstrations of presence resonate politically. Such operations remain among the most unambiguous expressions of support for international law and freedom of navigation.
The decline in publicly declared transits since early 2025 has prompted speculation about shifting U.S. tactics, possibly toward conducting “silent transits” where passage details are not disclosed publicly to reduce friction with Beijing. China has previously condemned such movements and called on Washington to avoid stoking “public hype.” This interpretation aligns with President Trump’s more conciliatory stance toward China in his second term. The September 2025 transit involving the USS Higgins and HMS Richmond, for example, went unannounced by the Navy despite later confirmation via a Pentagon source.
Undisclosed transits, while preferable to complete inaction, lack the transparency necessary to convey clear signals to allies and adversaries alike. Publicly acknowledged operations reinforce democratic norms and serve as tangible proof of U.S. resolve—an effect lost when movements occur below the radar.
Reducing the frequency of overt transits sends mixed messages at a crucial juncture. Rather than easing tensions, it risks emboldening further coercion from Beijing while undermining confidence among regional allies in America’s enduring commitment to peace and stability.
With Chinese maritime aggression showing no signs of abating—and indeed accelerating—the Pentagon must restore the cadence of routine, publicly announced transits established under prior administrations to preserve strategic deterrence and uphold international norms.
Allen Zhang is a researcher in the Heritage Foundation’s Asian Studies Center, where he contributes to the Center’s research on Taiwan and China policy. Charity Ihrman is a member of Heritage’s Young Leaders Program.