Israeli strikes on Syrian airbase send message to Damascus and Ankara

Tuesday’s strikes on a northwest Syrian airbase have been blamed on Israel and are seen by analysts as a message not only to Damascus but also to its ally Turkey.

Syria, the United States and Jordan have identified the attack on the Abu al‑Duhur airbase in Idlib as the latest Israeli strike on its neighbour, although Israel has not officially claimed responsibility. Analysts say the bombing signals Israel’s intent to prevent a new Syrian air force, according to scholar Kheder Khaddour of the Malcolm H Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center.

Israel’s Message to Damascus

After rebel forces took Damascus on 8 December 2024, ending President Bashar al‑Assad’s rule, Israel’s air force attacked Syrian military bases and infrastructure, reportedly disabling much of the new government’s air‑defence capabilities. In the immediate aftermath of Assad’s fall, Israel also seized areas in the Syrian Golan Heights, occupied the strategic Jabal al‑Sheikh and set up checkpoints on Syrian territory, where it has harassed and at times abducted Syrian citizens.

In March 2025 Israel struck two Syrian airbases—T4 in Homs and Palmyra—that the Reuters news agency reported had been visited by Turkish military delegations. In July 2025 Israel bombed Syria’s Ministry of Defence in central Damascus. Israeli officials have repeatedly said they view Syria’s new government as a threat, despite its rapprochement with the West, and have warned against any troop deployments south of Damascus that would bring them closer to the Israeli border.

Analyst Asli Aydintasbas of the European Council on Foreign Relations noted that Syria has not been a threat to Israel and that months of security negotiations were underway. “Since the fall of the al‑Assad regime, Syrians have made it clear they are interested in peaceful relations with Israel, and that should matter,” she said.

Tuesday’s attack caused no injuries; only airstrips and storage facilities were damaged, with no aircraft destroyed, according to International Crisis Group senior Syria analyst Nanar Hawach.

Many analysts said the Israeli strikes aim to keep Syria from rebuilding its air force, which the new government is attempting by repairing facilities, refurbishing aircraft and training personnel. Samy Akil, a senior adviser with The Syria Report, said any remaining Syrian jets pose little threat to Israel.

Turkey’s Role

The Israeli strike is also viewed as a warning to Turkey, which backed some anti‑Assad rebel groups during the war and maintains a military presence in northern Syria. “Abu al‑Duhur is close to Idlib and well within the Turkish sphere of influence,” Akil said.

Israel has long expressed concern over Turkish influence in Syria. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reportedly held security consultations on Ankara’s role and highlighted the threat posed by NATO’s second‑largest army. Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, a potential Netanyahu successor, has called Turkey “the new Iran.”

Navvar Saban, a security and military affairs researcher at the Arab Center for Contemporary Syrian Studies, compared the Abu al‑Duhur attack to Israel’s March 2025 airbase strikes. Reuters reported that Turkish military teams visited those airbases before the attacks, though neither Syrian nor Turkish authorities confirmed the report. “The strike was probably less about destroying an immediate Syrian military threat and more about preventing the creation of a future military capability,” Saban said. “Israel appeared to be drawing a red line around possible reconstruction of Syrian military infrastructure, especially where Turkish assistance could boost Syrian air capability or restrict Israeli freedom of operation over Syrian airspace.”

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