Israel’s next escalation is likely in southern Syria

Israeli forces launched a raid on homes in the town of al‑Rafid, situated in Syria’s Quneitra countryside, on 15 August. The operation garnered minimal attention beyond Syria, reflecting how such raids have become commonplace along the historic disengagement line and ceased to register as singular events in broader contexts. Ordinariness now poses a challenge to strategic anticipation.

The forthcoming escalation is anticipated to converge in southern Syria.

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