West African Crop Concerns Drive Cocoa Prices to Multi‑Month Highs

December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ26) rose 475 points, or 7.69%, on Friday, while September ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU26) gained 385 points, or 8.77%.

Cocoa prices climbed for a second consecutive session, reaching 11‑month highs. Worries about the quality of this year’s West African harvest are driving the rally. Insufficient sunshine in Ivory Coast and Ghana is encouraging black pod disease, which degrades bean quality.

Concerns over a smaller Ghanaian crop are supportive of prices. Ghana’s Cocoa Board said, after a field pod‑count survey, that the 2026/27 Ghana cocoa output is expected to be 650,000 metric tons — 13% below the 750,000 MT harvested last year.

Early surveys of the 2026/27 Ivory Coast crop also lend support, showing below‑average cherelle formation and pointing to a weak main‑crop outlook ahead of the September harvest. Assessments indicate poor pod development and an average forecast of 1.8 million metric tons for the upcoming season, down 18% from roughly 2.2 million MT in 2025/26.

Adding to the bullish outlook, StoneX reduced its 2026/27 global cocoa surplus projection to 25,000 MT on July 29, down from an April forecast of 149,000 MT, citing El Niño‑related risks to West African production. Likewise, Transgraph Consulting forecast on July 23 that the 2026‑27 global surplus will fall to 80,000 MT from 415,000 MT in 2025‑26, mainly because production is expected to slip to 4.87 million MT from 5.11 million MT.

COCOBOD, Ghana’s cocoa regulator, projected on July 30 that the 2026/27 Ghana cocoa harvest could range between 450,000 and 550,000 MT, compared with the 750,000 MT forecast for 2025/26, citing swollen shoot disease, aging farms, and the likely impact of El Niño weather. Nevertheless, the current marketing year remains strong: the Cocoa Board reported that 750,000 MT had already been harvested for the 2025/26 season — up 25.6% from 597,000 MT a year earlier — with the season ending later this month.

Medium‑term support also comes from weather concerns. On July 8, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center warned that the El Niño pattern emerging across the equatorial Pacific could rank among the strongest in over 75 years. El Niño typically brings warmer, drier weather to West Africa, curbing soil moisture, stressing cocoa trees, and trimming yields.

On the bearish side, current cocoa supplies remain ample. Bloomberg reported on Friday that Nigeria’s July cocoa bean exports rose 18% year‑on‑year to 16,052 metric tons; Nigeria ranks as the world’s fifth‑largest cocoa producer.

Data from Ivory Coast, the globe’s top cocoa producer, showed that farmers delivered 2.11 million metric tons of cocoa to ports during the current marketing year (Oct 1 2025 – Aug 2 2026), a 20% increase versus the same period last year.

Higher inventories weigh on prices; ICE cocoa stocks climbed to a two‑year high of 3,390,667 bags on Friday.

Demand was mixed in the second quarter. The European Cocoa Association said Q2 European grindings slipped 4.6% to 316,366 metric tons — a deeper drop than the anticipated 1.5% year‑on‑year decline and the lowest Q2 level in six years. Conversely, the National Confectioners Association reported that Q2 North American grindings unexpectedly rose 7.7% year‑on‑year to 109,659 metric tons, beating expectations of a 1% decline and easing demand worries. Asian demand also improved, with the Cocoa Association of Asia noting a 25% year‑on‑year increase in Q2 grindings to 224,646 metric tons, well above the projected 9% gain.

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