A view of a grain field during the early harvest season in the Rostov region, southern Russia, on July 14, 2026.
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Corn and wheat prices have surged to their highest levels in more than three years. However, the underlying drivers behind these rallies are markedly different for each commodity.
Wheat futures closed 3.1% higher at 784 cents per bushel on Friday, reaching an intraday peak of 790.25 cents—the highest level since February 14, 2023, when trading reached 797.5 cents. The weekly gain of 12.1% represents its largest advance since March 2022. Year-to-date, wheat futures have appreciated over 54.5%, fueled by escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea region.
Corn futures ended 0.6% higher at 536.5 cents per bushel on Friday after touching a high of 541.25 cents, marking the highest point since July 28, 2023. For the week, corn rose 5.5% and is up 15.6% in August, positioning itself for its strongest monthly performance since April 2021 when it increased 19.31%. The contract has climbed 21.8% year-to-date due to tighter U.S. supply expectations and robust demand, compounded by restricted Ukrainian exports that strain global supplies.
Corn’s upward trajectory is primarily driven by growing concerns regarding U.S. crop supply projections and a subdued outlook. Meanwhile, disruptions to Ukrainian exports continue to exert additional pressure on the global market.
“From the beginning of August to now, the consensus in the market is that there is less supply than we thought at the beginning of the month,” said William Osnato, Barchart director of commodity data research and analysis.
Osnasso attributes this shift to several contributing factors. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report exceeded trader expectations by lowering corn yield projections, despite forecasting the second-largest harvest on record. The USDA reduced its yield forecast by 2.3 bushels per acre to 180.7.
Additionally, Osnasso noted that the crop’s outlook was further affected by disappointing field observations from Pro Farmer’s Crop Tour. Extreme heat in July impacted the crop following excessive rainfall in June across many U.S. regions.
“We are slightly past the peak point of the growing season, which is late July and early August, but adverse weather conditions can still affect the crop at this stage,” Osnasso explained. Several areas in the eastern Corn Belt experienced excessive rainfall during August, alongside the emergence of corn fungal diseases later in the growing season.
Jim McCormick, co-founder and chief operating officer at AgMarket.Net, told CNBC that concerns surrounding the U.S. crop have become increasingly significant as global supplies were already constrained.
“We believed the world would rely on U.S. supply. Now the U.S. supply is becoming uncertain, and the market is shifting toward rationing,” he stated.
Beyond the U.S. crop itself, Osnasso mentioned other factors such as extreme heatwaves and drought throughout Europe during the summer, which significantly impacted corn production. Strong export demand from Europe further strained the already limited supply. The USDA increased export projections by 75 million bushels to 3.3 billion, reflecting rising global demand and restricted exports from Ukraine, a key global corn exporter. Osnasso, however, noted that the impact is less pronounced for corn compared to wheat, as some disruption to Ukrainian corn exports had already been anticipated by the market.
McCormick suggested that Europe’s drought-affected corn crop might also exert pressure on wheat supplies, as reduced corn availability could prompt increased use of wheat for animal feed, encouraging domestic retention over exports.
Wheat Supply Chain Disruptions
Wheat’s rally, in contrast to corn, stems directly from disruptions in the global supply chain.
Grain export interruptions have driven prices upward following reports of escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea region. Together, these nations account for over one-quarter of global wheat exports. Increasing fears about supply chain disruptions in the region have emerged as a powerful catalyst for price increases.
“You’ve experienced various disruptions in the Black Sea—that’s definitely the primary narrative,” Osnasso explained, noting that damage to Russian grain export infrastructure has led to reduced expectations for immediate Russian wheat shipments. The Black Sea remains the largest hub for wheat exports globally.
As the world’s largest wheat exporter and a cost-effective supplier whose pricing often influences international markets, Russia plays a pivotal role. However, the crop has seen minimal movement through the Black Sea. Recent attacks in the Sea of Azov—a channel leading into the Black Sea—along with additional military strikes on grain export facilities, oil tankers, and vessels, have complicated efforts for shipping companies to secure insurance coverage.
“What moves the market is changing expectations, and Russia won’t be able to ship several million tons of wheat as the capacity to export through the Black Sea has been severely compromised,” Osnasoo observed.
Adverse weather has introduced another layer of strain on wheat supplies. Osnasso noted that a severe heatwave diminished European wheat output by approximately 8 million to 10 million tons, while drought conditions reduced hard red winter wheat production in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas.
Beyond fundamental supply concerns influencing both crops, reaching multiyear highs alone can attract additional market interest.
“When a contract hits new highs and multi-year peaks, momentum traders and systematic investors take notice. This creates a convergence where both fundamental and algorithmic traders view the market favorably, reinforcing upward trends,” Osnasso said.