USD/JPY Weekly Technical Forecast: Key Levels and Market Outlook

The USD/JPY pair’s recovery from the 155.22 level continued last week as it cleared the 159.76 resistance barrier. The near-term inclination leans modestly bullish this week, with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 163.97 to 155.22 decline sitting at 160.62 expected to act as significant resistance. A pullback below the 159.39 minor support level could trigger a deeper correction toward 157.99. Conversely, a sustained breach above 160.62 would open the path toward the 100% projection target at 162.53.

From a broader perspective, as long as the critical support cluster at 155.01 holds (aligned with the 38.2% retracement of the 139.87 to 163.97 advance), the prevailing uptrend remains intact and is expected to resume beyond the 163.97 level following the current correction phase. However, a definitive break below 155.01 would significantly increase the probability that the pair has entered a more extensive corrective structure, potentially exposing the 139.87 support (2025 trough) to further downside pressure.

Looking at the longer-term picture, the structural uptrend originating from the 75.56 multi-year low in 2011 remains in progression. The next intermediate target is positioned at the 61.8% Fibonacci projection from the 102.58 bottom in 2020 to the 2024 high at 161.94, projecting to 176.55. The long-term constructive bias will persist as bullish, provided that the 139.87 support level remains intact, even in scenarios involving pronounced pullbacks.

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