Polls have opened in the eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt, where the far-right, anti-immigration Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is expected to top the ballot in a contest that could significantly alter Germany’s political landscape.
Approximately 1.7 million eligible voters are heading to the polls, which opened at 8:00 a.m. local time and will close at 6:00 p.m. Exit polls will subsequently provide an initial assessment of whether the AfD has secured an absolute majority to govern the state.
Such an outcome would represent the first time the party has captured a state government and mark the first instance since World War II that a right-wing extremist party has achieved power at the regional level in Germany.
Pre-election surveys indicated the AfD held roughly 40-41% support, with a notably lower proportion of undecided voters compared to previous elections.
Currently, the state is governed by the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, alongside two smaller parties. The CDU, polling at around 23% under state premier Sven Schulze, aims to build a multiparty coalition to maintain its hold on power.
The CDU and all other mainstream parties have refused to enter a coalition with the AfD, a stance known as a Brandmauer, or firewall. Germany’s domestic intelligence agency has classified the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt as “right-wing extremist.”
The AfD’s lead candidate is Ulrich Siegmund, a 35-year-old former fragrance salesman with a substantial TikTok following who has been celebrated like a pop star.
He has asserted that he will only assume power if the party achieves an absolute majority and will not accept a coalition with any other party.
The Saxony-Anhalt election represents the ultimate test for Merz, whose administration is deeply unpopular. Having failed to fulfill his promises to revitalize Germany’s struggling economy and curtail AfD support, Merz faces immense pressure. While irregular immigration has decreased during his tenure, it has not appeased the average voter to the extent necessary.
A decisive AfD victory would exert significant pressure on Merz. In national polls, the CDU has already been surpassed by the AfD, which is eyeing victory in the upcoming 2029 federal election.
Should the AfD secure victory in Saxony-Anhalt, Siegmund has pledged to launch a remigration and deportation campaign, prohibit rainbow flags in schools, and halt the construction of new wind farms.
He intends to change the state’s motto from “Think modern” to “Think German” and reintroduce the singing of the national anthem in schools.
Siegmund has sought to capitalize on a mood of ostalgie—nostalgia for communist East Germany—and to resonate with east Germans who feel marginalized compared to their western counterparts.
He arrived at the polling station on Sunday morning with his wife, riding an East German-era moped in the party’s colors, a prominent prop used during campaign rallies across the state. Addressing supporters outside the booth, he expressed optimism that the party would achieve “45%, and some.”
Thousands of AfD opponents gathered in the state capital, Magdeburg, on Saturday for a “festival of democracy.”
On Saturday evening, a message projected onto the facade of Magdeburg Cathedral read: “We do not abandon what we love. True love of the homeland is not the AfD.”
Bishop Gerhard Feige of Magdeburg warned against forces “that want to sow discord, stoke mistrust and fear” during an address to churchgoers, drawing parallels to historical developments and cautioning that a democracy has the potential to abolish itself. “Not everyone who votes or is elected democratically is a democrat,” he stated.
The German Economic Institute has warned of far-reaching consequences for the German economy, both within Saxony-Anhalt and beyond, particularly regarding immigration policy. The institute described such a policy as “calamitous” for a state with an aging, shrinking population that relies heavily on foreign workers.
Critics have also cautioned that an AfD-led state could leak sensitive information to Russia due to the party’s Kremlin-friendly stance, a claim the AfD has dismissed. The party has stated it intends to reform the domestic intelligence service, which it considers biased.
A recent poll by public broadcaster ZDF on Thursday placed the AfD at a decisive lead of 41%, with the CDU trailing at 23%, far-left Die Linke at 11.5%, the Social Democrats at 8.5%, and the Greens at 6%. Two smaller parties fell short of the 5% threshold required to re-enter parliament.
Independent election observers are present at polling booths amid speculation from the AfD that voter fraud has occurred, particularly in postal voting with a specific focus on a retirement home. State authorities have denied these claims.
