AfD Secures Historic Victory in Saxony-Anhalt Election but Faces Obstacles to Forming Government

The populist, far-right, anti-immigration Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has emerged as the winner in a crucial state election in Germany, according to exit polls. The party has secured a historic result, more than doubling its support and positioning itself on the brink of becoming the first far-right party to govern at the state level since the end of the Second World War.

Initial exit polls showed the AfD securing 44.4% of the vote, significantly outperforming pre-election forecasts and decisively defeating the Christian Democrats (CDU) of Chancellor Friedrich Merz in a contest watched closely worldwide. However, it remains unclear how and whether the party will be able to form a government, given that it has ruled out entering a coalition and has been denied cooperation by all mainstream parties.

The CDU trailed far behind with approximately 18.4% of the vote, while the far-left Die Linke placed third with 9.3%. The Social Democrats followed with 8.4%, and the Greens secured 8.7% by early evening. Meanwhile, the smaller BSW party cleared the 5% threshold required to re-enter parliament, defying expectations.

Voter participation reached a record high of 76.5%.

As votes continued to be counted, it initially appeared that the AfD might fall short of an absolute majority—the condition the party has deemed essential to taking power, given its refusal to govern in coalition with any other party.

The CDU and other mainstream parties have also refused to collaborate with the AfD in a government, a stance known as the Brandmauer, or firewall. The AfD branch in Saxony-Anhalt has been classified as “right-wing extremist” by Germany’s domestic intelligence agency.

Addressing jubilant supporters, Ulrich Siegmund, the AfD’s lead candidate in Saxony-Anhalt, declared, “We have made history in this country.” Speaking to public broadcaster ARD, he stated that his party was prepared to reach out to all forces striving for political change.

“We extend a hand to all democratic forces that wish to pursue better policies,” a beaming Siegmund said following the publication of exit polls. He added that core themes such as migration and domestic security were non-negotiable.

The CDU described its result as “bitter” but affirmed it would not abandon its refusal to govern alongside the AfD, a stance reciprocated by the far-right party itself.

Franziska Hoppermann, general secretary of the CDU, called the outcome a “defeat overall” for the Christian Democrats. “It is also a defeat for all those who have borne responsibility in the democracy of Saxony-Anhalt over the past 35 years,” she added, referencing the challenging post-communist era.

She ruled out any discussion regarding Merz’s political future, though analysts suggest his party’s defeat will inevitably spark such debates. Recent polls indicated that only 9% of voters in Saxony-Anhalt were satisfied with Merz’s policies. On Sunday evening, Siegmund derisively called Merz “a very good campaigner for the AfD.”

Alice Weidel, the AfD’s co-leader, stated that the result gave her party a “clear government mandate” and that they would “talk to all parties” to determine a strategy for how the AfD could govern.

Approximately 1.7 million people were eligible to vote in the east-central state, which has a total population of 2.1 million residents.

Pre-election polls had projected the AfD at around 40–41% support, and the party has now nearly doubled its 2021 result of 23.7%.

Polling indicated that the number of undecided voters ahead of the election was significantly lower than in previous cycles.

Since 2002, the state has been governed by Merz’s conservative CDU in coalition with two smaller parties.

The Saxony-Anhalt election was viewed as the biggest test yet for Merz, who remains highly unpopular. His governing coalition with the SPD has so far failed to deliver on promises to reset Germany’s struggling economy or halt the rise of the AfD. Since entering parliament in 2017, the party has made steady, regular gains and is now the Bundestag’s leading opposition force. Although irregular immigration has decreased under Merz’s leadership, the reduction has not been sufficient to appease the average voter.

In national polls, the CDU has also been overtaken by the AfD, which is now setting its sights on victory in the next federal elections in 2029 or 2033.

If the AfD succeeds in forming a government in Saxony-Anhalt, Siegmund has promised to immediately launch a remigration and deportation offensive, ban rainbow flags in schools, and halt the construction of new wind farms.

He intends to change the state’s slogan from “Think Modern” to “Think German” and to reintroduce the singing of the German national anthem in schools.

During the campaign, Siegmund sought to capitalize on a sense of Ostalgie, or nostalgia for communist East Germany, while tapping into discontent among eastern Germans. He repeatedly referenced a rise in foreigner-related crime, despite statistics showing that the overall crime rate has fallen dramatically.

Siegmund arrived at the polling station on Sunday morning with his wife, riding an East German-era moped in the party’s colours—a prominent prop used throughout the campaign rallies across the state. In a statement outside the polling station, he expressed optimism that the party would achieve “45%, and some,” stating his desire to “build bridges.”

Tensions leading up to the election were high, marked by a substantial police presence and numerous demonstrations across the state. On Saturday, thousands of AfD opponents gathered in the state capital, Magdeburg, for a “festival of democracy.”

On Saturday evening, a message projected onto the facade of Magdeburg Cathedral read: “We do not abandon what we love. True love of the homeland is not the AfD.”

The Bishop of Magdeburg, Gerhard Feige, warned the gathered churchgoers against forces “that want to sow discord, stoke mistrust, and fear.” Drawing historical parallels, he cautioned that a democracy has the potential to abolish itself, adding, “Not everyone who votes or is elected democratically is a democrat.”

The German Economic Institute has warned of far-reaching consequences for the German economy, both in Saxony-Anhalt and nationally. It stated that the AfD’s immigration policy would be “calamitous” for the state, which faces an aging, dwindling population and is heavily dependent on foreign labor.

Critics have also warned that an AfD-led state could leak sensitive information to Russia, given the party’s pro-Kremlin stance. The AfD has dismissed these allegations, stating instead that it would seek to reform the domestic intelligence service, which it labels as biased.

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