Africa’s Aviation Reliance on Distant Hubs Demands Urgent Reform

When conflict erupted in the Middle East in 2026, the consequences extended far beyond the region, disrupting Gulf airspace and sending ripple effects through the global aviation network, including Africa.

Airlines have been forced to reroute flights, resulting in a spike in operating costs, delayed cargo, and disrupted passenger travel. For Africa, this crisis has exposed a long-standing vulnerability: a dependence on external transit hubs for both international and intra-African connectivity.

For many African travelers, reaching another African destination often requires routing through Dubai, Doha, Abu Dhabi, Istanbul, or European hubs.

These recent disruptions highlight the risks of relying heavily on infrastructure beyond the continent’s control. Direct intra-African connectivity would significantly improve the efficiency and resilience of the continent’s aviation system.

Africa’s external aviation dependence has deep historical roots. Colonial air networks were designed to connect African territories with European capitals rather than with each other. After independence, states established national flag carriers, but commercial agreements and international routes remained oriented towards former colonial powers.

My work as an aviation law researcher examines African air transport liberalization, regional integration, and the legal frameworks governing airline market access. My research highlights a persistent contradiction: Africa possesses enormous aviation potential, yet fragmented markets and weak intra-African connectivity leave it dependent on foreign airlines and external hubs.

The African Airlines Association estimates that non-African carriers still operate nearly 70% of Africa’s intercontinental capacity. This means disruptions thousands of kilometers away can quickly become crises for African connectivity, trade, and costs.

The Gulf crisis is a stark wake-up call. Every rerouted flight, delayed shipment, and increased fuel bill illustrates the costs of fragmented markets and weak institutional coordination.

Africa’s aviation resilience will depend not only on building airports or expanding airline fleets, but also on strengthening the institutions that govern the sector.

The cost

The costs of an unstable Gulf region are immediate. Airlines are forced onto longer routes, consuming more fuel and increasing crew costs. Insurance premiums rise as flights operate closer to conflict zones, while reduced aircraft use causes delays across entire networks.

These expenses are ultimately passed on to passengers and exporters.

The timing could hardly be worse. African airlines already face some of the world’s highest operating costs, with aviation fuel accounting for 30% to 40% of expenses. Fuel is more expensive at many African airports than at major hubs in Europe or the Middle East due to import dependence, taxes, fragmented supply chains, and limited refining capacity.

Higher fuel prices affect all airlines operating from those airports, but African carriers are more exposed to these elevated costs. This is because many conduct a larger share of their operations within the continent, putting them at a competitive disadvantage and limiting the affordability of intra-African air services.

Even before the latest Gulf tensions, many African carriers had to compete against larger international airlines with economies of scale and integrated fuel supply systems. Longer flight paths caused by airspace closures amplify this disadvantage further.

The consequences extend beyond passenger transport. Africa increasingly relies on air cargo to export fresh vegetables to global markets, but these products depend on predictable schedules. Delays of only a few hours can reduce quality, increase wastage, and undermine the competitiveness of African exporters.

Opportunities

The crisis also reveals opportunities, highlighting the strategic importance of African aviation hubs such as Addis Ababa, Nairobi, Johannesburg, Cairo, and Casablanca. These hubs could absorb a greater share of traffic if:

• supported by efficient visa regimes
• air services were coordinated
• airport infrastructure was modernized.

However, infrastructure alone cannot solve Africa’s aviation challenges. The continent needs robust institutions capable of coordinating responses during a crisis.

Ethiopian Airlines demonstrates what is possible with coherent institutional support and operational autonomy, but it remains the exception. Many African airlines face restrictive market access, inconsistent regulatory environments, and fragmented continental connectivity.

What’s in place

Over the past three decades, the continent has established a legal and institutional framework to promote aviation integration.

However, progress has been virtually non-existent. Liberalization intentions have been undermined by:

• uneven implementation
• weak institutional coordination
• the preference of many governments to prioritize national interests over continental commitments.

To give fresh impetus to their efforts, African Union member states took further steps in 2026.

They signed the Lomé Declaration, a commitment to accelerate progress toward a single air traffic market.

They also signed the Yamoussoukro Decision, a legal framework for intra-African air transport.

What’s missing

Firstly, the focus must be on execution. The African Civil Aviation Commission needs a stronger mandate and adequate resources to:

• coordinate continent-wide crisis responses
• monitor member states’ compliance with commitments
• publish periodic assessments of progress
• facilitate closer cooperation between national civil aviation authorities, regional economic communities, and the African Union Commission.

Secondly, enforcement remains one of the greatest weaknesses facing African aviation integration. Airlines still encounter route denials, discriminatory treatment, or regulatory barriers despite formal commitments.

Thirdly, the existing Single African Air Transport Market dispute settlement mechanism should be strengthened to serve two purposes:

• adjudicate disagreements between states or regulators
• reinforce confidence among investors and airlines that African aviation operates under predictable and enforceable rules.

External shocks often encourage governments to shield national carriers. Airlines need assurance that agreed rules will be applied consistently, regardless of political or economic pressures.

The European Union offers an important lesson: the success of Europe’s single aviation market came through liberalization as well as strong institutions that interpret rules consistently and resolve disputes authoritatively.

Opening markets must go hand in hand with enforcing rules.

Arthur Shirichena, PhD candidate in aviation law, University of Manchester

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