Algeria will hold a parliamentary election on Thursday, with incumbent President Abdelmadjid Tebboune describing the vote as another step toward modernising the country’s political institutions. However, many observers expect neither a change of leadership nor a fundamental shift in the political system.
At the moment, a different priority occupies many Algerians’ attention: soccer. The national team has progressed to the knockout stages of the 2026 World Cup.
“The elections are competing with other topics, especially the World Cup and the start of summer vacation,” said Robin Frisch, head of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation’s office in Algiers, to DW. He added, “It is still a very important political event,” even though large‑scale campaign rallies have been limited.
According to the Algerian electoral authority ANIE, roughly 24.7 million citizens are eligible to vote for the new National Assembly on July 2. The 407 members of the lower house will serve a five‑year term.
More than a routine election?
“I consider these elections to be extremely significant,” said political scientist Rachid Ouaissa of Philipps University in Marburg, Germany. He noted that the 2021 election was still heavily influenced by the pro‑democracy Hirak protests and that this time he observes a different trend. “If you follow the election campaign, you’ll notice a large number of independent candidates,” he added.
Ouaissa interprets the rise in independent candidacies as evidence that parts of society are once again viewing parliament as a political arena. Frisch also sees this as an expression of disillusionment with established parties and a sign of new political mobilisation. “The People’s Assembly is Algeria’s most visible democratic institution,” he said.
At the same time, voter turnout will be closely watched. Official figures show that turnout in the 2021 parliamentary election was only 23 %, a historic low. A further decline would reinforce the perception that many Algerians remain distrustful of state institutions.
Democracy, with strict limits
The democratic quality of the political system remains contentious. The Washington‑based think‑tank Freedom House once again classifies Algeria as “not free.” While elections and parties exist, Freedom House argues that real power remains in the hands of the presidency, the military and the security apparatus.
The Bertelsmann Transformation Index arrived at a similar conclusion: hopes for reform have largely faded, and Algeria has largely reverted to pre‑Arab Spring conditions.
Since the Hirak protests ended, several opposition parties, journalists and human‑rights organisations have voiced concerns about an increasingly restricted political and media space.
Cautious opening or controlled participation?
Nevertheless, Frisch believes that democratic procedures still exist. Consequently, he views the return of numerous opposition parties after boycotting the 2021 election as generally positive.
However, the opposition’s return is interpreted in different ways. The Philadelphia‑based Middle East Forum sees it less as an opening and more as a response to institutional pressure.
The underlying factor is a new party law that threatens to dissolve parties after two election boycotts. The opposition’s return may therefore not reflect renewed trust in the political system but rather an attempt to influence development from within.
Electoral reforms are also viewed critically. According to Frisch, the expanded powers of the electoral authority ANIE have attracted scepticism from parts of the opposition. In addition, the quota for women on electoral lists has been reduced from 50 % to one‑third.
Ouaissa still recognises signs of change. He said the president is striving—at least rhetorically—to reshape the relationship between the state and society and that the participation of former Hirak activists in the elections is noteworthy.
Frisch also highlighted new civil society initiatives, such as a feminist collective recently established in southern Algeria.
No power shift expected
Despite these developments, Frisch sees little room for significant political change. “Decisive political initiatives generally do not originate in parliament,” he said. The Bertelsmann Transformation Index also describes Algeria as an “authoritarian stabilization” system, where parliament mainly serves a rubber‑stamp function.
Ouaissa is somewhat more optimistic, noting that the 80‑year‑old Tebboune may, for the first time, be able to work with a parliament that is no longer entirely shaped by the old networks of the Bouteflika era. He concluded that “both the political leadership and society have high expectations for this election.”
Why the election matters for Europe
Beyond its domestic significance, Algeria’s parliamentary election is highly relevant for Europe, particularly France, the former colonial power with whom Algeria maintains a contentious relationship to this day.
In recent years, Algeria has become a key energy partner for Europe. It also plays a central role in migration and stabilising the Sahel region, contributing to a new dynamic in Algeria‑EU relations. According to Frisch, Algeria is likely to seek further expansion of its role as a regional anchor of stability.
The parliamentary election is unlikely to fundamentally alter the political balance of power within Algeria. However, it highlights the tension the country faces between calls for political renewal and a system whose power centres remain outside parliament.
This article was originally written in German.
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