Markets:
- Gold down $49 to $4160
- WTI crude oil up 94-cents to $77.54
- US markets closed
- S&P 500 futures down 0.2%
- JPY leads, CAD lags
The US observed a holiday on Friday, constraining market activity for the week’s close. Israel and Hezbollah announced a ceasefire, initially prompting optimism and a drop in oil prices by more than $1. However, as fighting persisted in southern Lebanon, those gains eroded. Ongoing shelling reports suggest the situation remains volatile for the weekend. Meanwhile, Iran expressed dissatisfaction, and former President Trump remarked that Israel should give the truce an opportunity.
The US dollar softened during North American trading, though the Canadian dollar was an outlier. Friday’s headline retail sales appeared solid, yet core sales declined 0.7% month‑over‑month, and the entire increase in sales was driven by higher gasoline prices. Consequently, the USD/CAD pair climbed to its highest level since November.
Gold sought a rebound early in US trading, rallying roughly $30 before the momentum stalled and prices stabilized near current levels. Traders will monitor this sector closely in the coming week as bulls grapple with mounting defensive pressure.
Overall, the week concluded oddly, with the bond market pricing a more hawkish Federal Reserve while most other assets disregarded the shift. Whether this dynamic reconciles next week or whether AI‑related enthusiasm continues to dominate remains to be seen.
Enjoy the weekend.